The loss to Volkanovski brought Lopes’ momentum to an abrupt halt after putting together a staggering five-fight winning streak that included victories over Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. Although he managed to take down the former title holder, the Australian’s precision punching proved a difficult puzzle to solve, with Lopes losing a small piece on the map. Building on past failures, Lopes went right back to work five months later in the main event of Noche UFC 3, defeating the surging Jean Silva in the second round. earning the praise of gamblers everywhere.
Although the young and hungry Lopes is a dangerous challenger for his seat on the 145-pound throne, Volkanovski has proven time and time again why he is one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time. With a significant repertoire of experience and world-class techniques, he has all the tools to get the job done in his eighth top-billed pay-per-view match. If he can get his hand raised at UFC 325, he could etch his name in the history books as the only two-time featherweight king to successfully defend his title.
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Here are three ways Alexander Volkanovski can beat Diego Lopes at UFC 325.
1. Volkanovski can use Cage to deal damage and take out spikes
Throughout his journey in the UFC, Volkanovski has developed into a competitor who can use every part of the Octagon to his advantage. One of these parts happens to be the cage, which the Australian has used with great success in his previous tilts.
In the opening round of his first fight with Lopes, he quickly closed the distance to pin his opponent to the cage wall, pelting his opponent with punches and knees as he made a slick trip inside in the final seconds of the stanza. For Volkanovski, getting the challenger to the fence could be a valuable part of his game plan, as this would allow him to not only do damage but also wear out the younger athlete’s gas tank.
In his eight fights with the UFC, Lopes has gone the full distance just four times, with only one of those lasting 25 minutes, his clash with Volkanovski at UFC 314. While he managed to field serious threats like Ige and Ortega, the Brazilian was largely in control from start to finish in those particular bouts. However, the Volkanovski scrap was a much more competitive outing for both individuals, making it one of the few times Lopes was ever actually tested during his tenure with the promotion.
The champion has also used the cage to great effect in his other fights, such as in his two bouts with then lightweight incumbent Islam Makhachev, causing the Dagestani to carry his weight and inflict visible damage on him. He also used the wall to prevent his fifth would-be title usurper, Yair Rodríguez, from delivering triangle chokes when Volkanovski found himself in his guard.
Given his prowess in five-round championship matches, Volkanovski has a proven gas tank that has been and will continue to be a problem for Lopes. If “The Great” can keep the Lobo Gym MMA product on the fence, he can effectively tire him out while hurting him.
2. Volkanovski must take distance management into account
With an arm length of 71 1/2 inches, Volkanovski has a reach advantage over most opponents in the featherweight division. Even in his 155-pound fights with the aforementioned Makhachev, the Australian still had a 1 1/2 inch lead. Against Lopes, who has a reach of 72 1/2 inches, the incumbent’s usual lead now becomes a slight disadvantage.
Despite immediately losing the height battle, Volkanovski has shown a solid ability to judge the distance between himself and his competition. Against power-punchers like Lopes, Chad Mendes and Ilia Topuria, the New South Wales native dazzled fans by being able to execute his strikes while avoiding all return fire with excellent body and head movements.
In his first meeting with Lopes, Volkanovski was able to dodge most of the high-damaging shots thrown his way, putting him out of range. 165 strokes against the Brazilian’s 71. Admittedly, he was dropped to the canvas at one point after absorbing a stunning straight on the second lap, leaving him in trouble.
His range judgment also failed him in his encounter with Topuria in their 2024 title affair. Volkanovski allowed the Spaniard to enter and was emphatically met with a thumping right hook from the now lightweight king.
While he can’t stay perfect for the entire five-round assignment, the champion will almost have to be, as the hard-hitting Lopes has an alarming amount of power in his fists. If he can cover the distance within reach while avoiding getting hit as much as possible, Volkanovski can take a valuable weapon from the Brazilian.
3. Volkanovski can use volume attacks to overwhelm lopes with pressure
During his time with the organization, Volkanovski has a plethora of awards aside from his numerous championship defenses. Some that stand out include the highest significant strikeout percentage in the history of the UFC Featherweight division at 3.09 and the third highest significant strike rate in the history of the UFC Featherweight division at 56.5%. Needless to say, the champion tends to throw a lot of punches in his matches, which could be a big advantage in his rematch against Lopes.
In his 17 fights under the UFC banner, the dominant Australian has registered more than 100 significant strikes in seven of them, with the most 214 coming in his second belt retention against Ortega in 2021. Volkanovski keeps his foot on the gas for the majority of his fights, constantly keeping his opponent’s guard busy with a precise jab, kick or threat of a takedown.
Due to his tendency to end his trips to the Octagon in the distance, Lopes has rarely landed more than 100 punches himself. In fact, he’s only accomplished the feat once, dating back to his main card dance with Ortega at UFC 306. Although Volkanovski has finished three times as a professional, Lopes couldn’t get the job done earlier this year at UFC 314, with the older athlete drowning him with non-stop circle strikes and making him pay for every punch he missed.
The obvious thing is that Lopes is the clearly stronger competitor in this match, having defeated Volkanovski once before. But given his ability to see the holes in his enemy’s defenses, and his fast attack speed, the champion can really put pressure on the challenger’s cardio and keep his arms busy if he can keep his stand-up game active throughout the fight.
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