Vitalik Buterin Earns $70,000 Profit on Polymarket Using an Anti-Irrationalism Strategy

Buterin explained that his Polymarket profits came from betting on unlikely outcomes in politics and technology markets, driven by hype.

Vitalik Buterin made about $70,000 last year trading on the Polymarket prediction market, with a principal of about $440,000.

Buterin explained that his profits came from what he described as an “anti-insanity strategy,” which involves identifying markets driven by extreme irrationality and betting on unlikely outcomes.

Political and technical betting

According to the Ethereum co-founder, many Polymarket participants lose money because they get caught up in panic or hype, while he deliberately looks for situations where sentiment becomes disconnected from reality. He cited examples such as markets speculating that Donald Trump could win the Nobel Peace Prize, or predictions from periods of severe economic fear that the U.S. dollar would collapse to zero within a year.

When such scenarios gain ground, Buterin said he typically bets that these “crazy things won’t happen,” a method he says has generally proven profitable. When asked about the types of markets he focuses on, Buterin said his activities are mainly focused on politics and technology. He added that these areas often have the strongest emotional reactions and the most exaggerated expectations.

Buterin also explained that markets dominated by irrational predictions tend to offer the clearest opportunities to disciplined traders who are willing to take the opposite view. Interestingly, this is not Buterin’s first success in the field of prediction markets. During the 2020 US presidential election, he disclosed that he made approximately $58,000 from election-related bets, despite not being a frequent Polymarket user at the time.

Around that period, Buterin came out publicly praised prediction markets as an emerging tool for the collective search for truth, describing them as ‘social epistemic technologies’ that encourage ‘open participation’ rather than relying on ‘pre-selected elites’.

Polymarket Statistics

Messari’s recent findings show that Polymarket no longer dominates the prediction market. On June 1, 2025, the blockchain-based prediction platform had the largest share of open interest: 57%. By December 31, leadership had moved to Kalshi, which captured a 42% share with $355.9 million in outstanding interest.

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Polymarket followed closely with 41%, while Opinion was in third place with a 15% share. Despite increased competition, Polymarket’s activities remain broadly diversified. As of December 2025, the sports, politics, and crypto markets each recorded trading volume of more than $1.2 billion, indicating that the platform is not reliant on a single sector.

Culture emerged as the fastest growing category, with monthly volume increasing 687% to $264.3 million between June and December. However, usage remains highly concentrated as a small group of wallets account for the majority of total trading volume.