Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev will compete for the Erste Bank Open title for the eighth time in their careers on Sunday.
The head-to-head series stands at 4-3 in Zverev’s favor, but he has not beaten Sinner since surviving a 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 night session thriller in the fourth round of the 2023 US Open. Sinner have won their last two meetings, prevailing in a third-set tiebreaker at the 2024 Cincinnati and in a much easier 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3 match in this year’s Australian Open final.
There is no reason to believe that the tide in Vienna will turn in Zverev’s favor. Sinner is just playing too well at the moment. The second-ranked Italian is 47-6 this season and, barring a retirement, hasn’t lost to anyone other than Carlos Alcaraz since Halle. Sinner, whose autumn swing includes titles in Beijing and at the Six Kings Slam, advanced this week with outright victories over Daniel Altmaier, Flavio Cobolli, Alexander Bublik (who defeated him in Halle) and Alex de Minaur.
Zverev’s campaign in Vienna almost never got off the ground. The third-ranked German needed a third-set tiebreak to get past Jake Fearnley in the first round before making quicker work of Italians Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti (he also got a walkover from Tallon Greekpoor in the quarterfinals).
This is Zverev’s first final since the grass court swing (Stuttgart) and he has not won a title since Munich this spring. Vienna might as well be a home tournament for Sinner, so all indications are that this is a one-way street for the best players.
Choice: sinner in 2
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