Which of the many talented horses pre-entered for the 2025 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf is most likely to win? History can help us gauge the answer. Looking at the decades-long history of the Breeders’ Cup Turf reveals several powerful trends that bettors can use to rank the top contenders.
Here are eight historical angles to keep in mind as your handicap for the Breeders’ Cup Turf, scheduled for Nov. 1 in Del Mar:
Stretch runners have an advantage
It is unusual for horses to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf with early speed. Eleven of the last fifteen winners (73%) were no closer than fifth after the first half mile, including nine winners (53%) closing from the back half of the field.
Year | Winner | Position after the first 1/2 mile | ½ mile and ¾ mile times (course requirement) |
2024 | Romance of the Rebels | 3rd per 1 length (13 starters) | :48.77, 1:13.82 (firm) |
2023 | Auguste Rodin | 8e with 4.25 lengths (11 starters) | :48.79, 1:12.66 (firm) |
2022 | Romance of the Rebels | 10e with 8.25 lengths (13 starters) | :49.42, 1:14.15 (firm) |
2021 | Jibir | 13e with 13.5 lengths (14 starters) | :48.38, 1:12.41 (firm) |
2020 | Tarnawa | 8e with 6.75 lengths (10 starters) | :51.06, 1:15.99 (firm) |
2019 | Bricks and mortar | 7e with 2.75 lengths (12 starters) | :48.44, 1:13.26 (firm) |
2018 | Enable | 6e per 5 lengths (13 starters) | :49.11, 1:14.22 (good) |
2017 | Talismanic | 5e with 3.5 lengths (13 starters) | :48.33, 1:12.86 (firm) |
2016 | Highland coil | 1st per 2.5 lengths (12 starters) | :48.00, 1:12.70 (firm) |
2015 | Found | 7e with 26.75 lengths (12 starters) | :48.38, 1:12.64 (good) |
2014 | Main sequence | 9e per 4 lengths (12 starters) | :47.76, 1:11.15 (good) |
2013 | Wizard | 11e with 14.5 lengths (12 starters) | :46.94, 1:10.67 (firm) |
2012 | Little Mike | 3rd per 3.5 lengths (12 starters) | :46.77, 1:10.80 (firm) |
2011 | St. Nicholas Abbey | 5e per 3 lengths (9 starters) | :50.09, 1:14.67 (good) |
2010 | Dangerous Midge | 2i.e per 2 lengths (7 starters) | :50.17, 1:15.91 (firm) |
The betting favorite is performing well
The betting favorite has finished fourth or better in 15 of the last 17 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, a remarkable feat considering the Turf often attracts large and competitive fields. The Breeders’ Cup Turf favorites in particular have been formidable in recent years, winning four of the seven editions since 2018.
Give preference to horses based abroad
Horses based outside North America dominate the Breeders’ Cup Turf. International raiders represent 21 of the last 27 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (78%). This trend has been especially strong over the past decade, with only Bricks and Mortar (2019) notching a win for North America.
Irish-bred horses enjoy the most success
Twenty-six of the 42 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (62%) were bred outside North America, including nine of the last 10 (90%). The majority of these foreign-bred winners (18) came from Ireland, which has produced more Breeders’ Cup Turf winners than any other country.
Use horses trained by O’Brien and Appleby
Aidan O’Brien has won a record seven editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, all with Irish-bred stock. He has five wins in the last 14 years with Auguste Rodin (2023), Highland Reel (2016), Found (2015), Magician (2013) and St Nicholas Abbey (2011). Eighteen of O’Brien’s total of 36 Breeders’ Cup Turf starters (50%) have earned a top three finish.
Charlie Appleby has also excelled in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. From just six starters in four editions of the Turf, Appleby has recorded three victories with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2022 and 2024).
BellyDettori and Moore are the leading jockeys
Three active jockeys have compiled particularly strong records in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
William Buick has raced the Turf six times and won twice with Yibir (2021) and Rebel’s Romance (2024). His winning percentage stands at 33%.
Frankie Dettori recorded five Turf wins from 22 rides, a winning percentage of 23%.
Ryan Moore’s record is the best of them all. From fifteen climbs on the Turf he has achieved five victories, four seconds, three thirds and two fourths. His winning percentage is 33% and 93% of his horses have finished in the top four.
The winners of class/group 1 dominate
Since 2000, 22 of the 26 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (85%) have entered as proven Grade 1 or Group 1 winners.
Foals and mares perform strongly
Mares and fillies compete relatively infrequently in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, making just 15 starts in the race over the past decade. Yet they have managed three wins in that period thanks to Found (2015), Enable (2018) and Tarnawa (2020). In fact, the fillies and mares went 1-2 in both 2018 and 2020.
Conclusions
Our historical trends suggest a 3-year-old filly Minnie Hauk is the most likely winner of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained filly has excelled in Europe this year, winning the Group 1 Irish and English Oaks and the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks successively before finishing a close second to the males in the coveted Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Based on this impressive run of races, Minnie Hauk will most likely become a heavy favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
The historical blows against Minnie Hauk are small. She shows more early speed than a typical Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, and with her regular rider Ryan Moore out with an injury, she will likely be ridden by Christophe Soumillon. The latter possibility should not be a cause for concern, however, as Soumillion won the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf with Shirocco, one of only two horses he has raced in the Turf.
Romance of the Rebels also fits the typical profile of a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, which is fitting since he has already won the race twice. The world traveler, of Irish descent, was trained by Charlie Appleby and will most likely have William Buick in the saddle.
The downsides to Rebel’s Romance’s historical profile are minor: he has more early speed than many Peat winners, he’s neither a filly nor a mare, and he won’t be the betting favorite if Minnie Hauk starts. But if Minnie Hauk pulls out, Rebel’s Romance will start as the favorite, making him a formidable winning threat based on historical angles.
Good luck with your handicap and enjoy the race!
#history #guide #betting #Breeders #Cup #Turf