The open qualification of the US was delayed by rain for a day, but it finally came on Friday and the draw has now been established. Qualifications – and three happy losers – have been placed, so the festivities at Flushing Meadows are ready to start. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are again the heavy favorites and the bracket is especially good for Sinner to make a repeated appearance in the final, but there are many challenges. Americans Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton Figure to fly the flag for the host country, while four -time US Open Champion Novak Djokovic can never be discounted.
With the tournament that starts on Sunday, it’s time to break down the signs of the gentlemen of 2025.
Sinner’s quarter
In 2024, Sinner opened the US with a hip problem, had already missed the Olympic Games because of tonsillitis and had to do with his doping scandal that had just exploded. All he did was convincingly driven to the title. This time Sinner arrives in New York without such problems. It is true that he withdrew from the Cincinnati -final against Alcaraz because of an illness, but there is no reason to think that this will be a factor for fourteen days. The draw is also extremely good for the top Italian, because Djokovic, Fritz and Shelton are all on the other side with Shelton. Sinner was able to meet Alexander Bublik in the fourth round and Jack Draper or Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals.
Best first round matchup – (10) Lorenzo Musetti vs. Giovanni Mpeshi Pericard
Musetti pulled the short stick for all purposes. Nobody wants to be confronted with Mpetshi Perricard in the first round of a slam, all attributed to the fact that the Frenchman of 6’8 ‘uses one of the largest services on tour. It has been a bit of a struggle for Musetti since he went to the French Open Semis and he has not been 100 percent physical, so he can be vulnerable. On the positive side for the Italian state, he 2-0 in the head-to-head series and his both victories have come on grass so he knows how to deal with the Mpetshi Perricard Serve.
Best potential second round matchup – (24) Flavio Cobolli vs. Jenson Brooksby
Best potential matchup on the third round – (14) Tommy Paul vs. (23) Alexander Bublik
Possible surprises – It is difficult to see someone other than the sinner coming out of this section, but the other quarter -final place may be there for the taking. Musetti is somewhat a question mark and Draper has had more injury problems since Wimbledon. Mpetshi Perricard, Flavio Cobolli or Gabriel Diallo can benefit.
Zverev’s quarter
Everyone wants to be in Zverev’s section of the bracket. After all, that means that you avoid sinner and Alcaraz (and, less important, Djokovic and Fritz) to at least the semi -final. This specific semi -final seems to be entirely for the taking. The quarter is by no means top, but it does have a lot of depth. Zverev is accompanied by Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The minaur triumphed in Washington, DC and Khahanov-a former American semi-finalist second with the Toronto Masters.
Best first round matchup – (19) Francisco Cerundolo vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Surprisingly, Cerundolo and Arnaldi will go the head-to-head for the first time in their career. This projects a very competitive match with two players who are not playing particularly well at the moment, but in the past have proven that they have potential on the second week on almost every Grand Slam. Cerundolo has reached the fourth round twice at Roland Garros; Arnaldi did the same in Paris last spring and made a run of the fourth round on the US Open in 2023.
Best potential second round matchup -(25) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Gael Monfils
Best potential matchup on the third round – (8) Alex de Minaur vs. (26) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Possible surprises – If he is healthy, Khachanov would have a good chance to reach the semi -final. The Russian went so far in 2022 and has Momentum of his Toronto version. If he faces the Minaur in the last 16, the winner of that match would have set his sights in the semi -final. Rublev could not have asked for a better part to finally secure a SLAM-HALVE Final, but his 0-10 record in the quarters is a heavy mental blockade.
Fritz’s quarter
This is perhaps the most intriguing part of the draw. First, there is no clear favorite fritz the highest seed, but Djokovic is a 24-way winner and reached the semi-final in all three SLAMs earlier this season. Two, there will probably be must-see matchups from start to finish. Djokovic opens ten against emerging American student; Joao Fonseca vs. Miomir Kecmanovic might be the Selection frame of the entire first round; Holger Rune vs. Fan Favorite Frances Tiafoe is a potential third-round showdown. Czech friends Jakub Mensik and Tomas Machac can also be in the mix.
Best first round matchup – Joao Fonsec vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Fonseca is probably the most dangerous continuous Dloer in the field. No, he’s not the best– Now at the moment, at least. He just has the most potential. The 18-year-old Brazilian brought it all together to disturb Rublev from the Australian Open before he won the title of Buenos Aires. Since then he has cooled, so the expectations are not as high for him as earlier in the season. Kecmanovic has yielded many impressive results during his much longer career, but the 25-year-old Serbian has lost in the first round in 11 of his last 18 events. Both boys have a lot of talent, but are wild inconsistent. Something Could happen in this matchup between two players separated by just one place in the ranking.
Best potential second round matchup – (28) Alex Michelsen vs. Sebastian Korda
Best potential matchup on the third round – (11) Holger Rune vs. (17) Frances Tiafoe
Possible surprises – Both Mensik and Machac are incredibly talented, but both men have taken a step back since the 2025 campaign in a scorching hot form. Everyone could lose early in the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, in which case the winner of the Fonseca-Kecmanovic would have a real chance to get the second week.
Alcaraz’s quarter
Alcaraz and Shelton have a collision course for the quarterfinals. Looking at the draw, there are players who can prevent that potential matchup from unable to work out under normal circumstances. However, these are not normal circumstances for Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud. Medvedev is entangled in a huge slump, while Ruud missed the entire Gras-Court Swing-Des in the context of disinterest and partly due to an injury. The Norwegian came back and played badly in both Toronto and Cincinnati, but a run to the US Open Mixed Doubles -Final with Iga Swiatek may have helped to recover somewhat of trust at least. Yet it is difficult to see that Alcaraz or Shelton are stopped.
Best first round matchup – (WC) Stefan Gosh vs. (WC) Eliot Spizziri
This is a classic college tennis matchup between two boys who were once at the top of the hope in the NCAAs. Dostanic has just led Wake Forest to the National Championship this spring; Spizzirri finished twice as the number 1 player in the nation. Both 23-year-old Americans also did some decent work on the Pro Tour in a limited time. Last week in Winston-Salem defeated Dostanic Aleksandar Vukic and then pushed Lorenzo Sonego to a third set of Tiebreak. Spizzirri made Fonseca Van Streek in 2024 US Open qualification. They split two earlier challengers of meetings; A rubber competition on the big stage should be a good one.
Best potential second round matchup – Corentin Moutet vs. Adrian Mannarino
Best potential matchup on the third round – (13) Daniil Medvedev vs. (18) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Possible surprises – Alcaraz did well to overcome in Cincinnati, but he flirted with a disaster in his opening match against Damir Dzumhur and was not convincing against Zverev, although the German was hindered due to illness. Alcaraz, who lost to Botic van de Zandschulp in the American open second round last summer, is not a Slam Dunk to reach the final. Shelton was even upset in the quarters. Also watch out for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the part of the bracket of Medvedev.
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