US attacks Venezuela: Will the crisis have any ‘meaningful impact’ on India? GTRI advises caution – The Times of India

India is unlikely to be affected by the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, in terms of material economy or energy, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) assured in a note. Although it was once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude, the think tank highlighted that New Delhi has reduced shipments from the South American country in recent years. In the 2000s and 2010s, Indian companies such as ONGC Videsh had interests in Venezuela’s Orinoco belt, importing significant quantities of crude oil. But since 2019, US sanctions have forced the country to scale back imports and commercial activities, restricting trade to avoid secondary sanctions.

Now, trade between the two countries is relatively small and steadily declining. During 2024-2025, India brought in only $364.5 million worth of goods from Venezuela, of which $255.3 million was crude oil. This represented a drastic drop of 81.3% from $1.4 billion in 2023-2024. Exports, meanwhile, totaled $95.3 million, led by pharmaceutical goods worth $41.4 million. “Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions and large geographical distance, current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on the Indian economy or energy security,” GTRI said. Looking beyond the immediate situation, GTRI says that global competition for raw materials and energy is likely to intensify in the coming years. It called on India to proceed with caution, protect its strategic autonomy and secure access to critical resources and energy without succumbing to geopolitical pressure.The think tank’s approach comes after US forces carried out a large-scale military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro along with his wife. The duo were brought to the US to face charges including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. Venezuela’s oil reserves were at the heart of the US operation. The country holds about 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia, Russia or the United States and even more than the US and Russia combined. “The United States has entered into trade agreements with partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, and has obtained commitments from them to purchase U.S. petroleum products and LNG, without having sufficient crude oil or refining capacity,” the GTRI note said. “Against this backdrop, Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven petroleum reserves, represents a crucial source of crude oil for the US. Open access to Venezuelan oil was thus a central motivation for the US.”