US attacks on Iran spark debate over Bitcoin hashrate and market stability

Some observers noted that even if Iran controlled 5% of the global hashrate, the network would continue to function without disruption.

Bitcoin mining in Iran is back in the spotlight after a viral X-post on February 27 claimed the country is running a $1 billion operation that could be wiped out.

The debate has divided crypto observers, with some warning of a temporary hashrate shock while others dismiss the claims as exaggerated fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD).

The Iranian mining footprint and the strike scenario

The discussion started when independent analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera posted that Iran mines Bitcoin at a theoretical price of $1,320 per BTC using heavily subsidized electricity and then sells it at the current price of almost $68,000 to extract a 50x gross margin.

He claimed that around 700,000 mining facilities consume around 2,000 megawatts daily, much of which is related to operations linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Perera linked the argument to sanctions, saying Bitcoin allows Iran to convert limited energy resources into liquid capital beyond the reach of SWIFT bans.

A January 16 report from Chainalysis found that Iran’s total crypto activity exceeded $7.78 billion in 2025. Additionally, the report said that addresses connected to IRGC facilitation networks received more than $3 billion last year, up from just over $2 billion in 2024, and that activity often spiked during military or political crises.

Nevertheless, critics, along with analyst Dasha, have been quick to challenge assumptions about mining costs calling the $1,320 figure is ‘100% fake news’, arguing that it relies on household electricity rates that are not achievable in practice due to power outages and shortages.

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Hashrate shocks are not new

The objections did not stop there, according to miner ZynxBTC rejected the care completely:

“Even if Iran controlled 5% of the global hashrate (it doesn’t) and it went offline, the network would continue to function normally.”

Recent events in the US support that argument. Earlier this year, the network continued to function even after a severe winter storm forced major miners in Texas offline, causing the hashrate to drop from 1,133 ZH/s to 690 EH/s in just a few days.

However, Perera argued that grid disruption is different from voluntary closure. According to his analysis, as tensions mount in the Middle East, a seven- to 10-day air campaign against Iran’s military infrastructure would likely plunge power generation by an estimated 30% to 50%.

He emphasized that mining rigs require continuous power, and even brief interruptions can destroy active operations. As such, he postulated that an attack on Iran’s already vulnerable network could cause the country’s estimated 2% to 5% share of the global hashrate to drop to zero within days, triggering a difficulty adjustment that would extend block times and temporarily increase transaction costs. If CryptoPotato According to reports, the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran earlier today.

Still, others argued that the Bitcoin network has withstood even bigger shocks, according to researcher Furkan Yildirim noticing that China removed more than half of the global hashrate in 2021, but the network quickly adapted as miners moved.

“An Iranian grid failure would be a rounding error by comparison,” he tweeted.