Resilience, revolution and rivalry have long characterized the Horn of Africa, a region with more than 160 million inhabitants. At the center of this tension is one of the longest and most tortured conflicts on the continent: Ethiopia versus Eritrea.
The roots of the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea
From Federation to Secession
After World War II, the UN united Eritrea with Ethiopia in 1952. The move was intended to give Eritrea its independence while keeping Ethiopia intact. But Emperor Haile Selassie annexed Eritrea in 1962, dissolving the federation and starting a 30-year war of independence.
The Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), whose leader was Isaias Afwerki, was joined by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of Ethiopia in their fight against the Derg, a Marxist regime. Both movements were succeeded in 1991, the Derg was defeated and Eritrea became de facto independent. In 1993, the United Nations oversaw a referendum and formalized Eritrea’s sovereignty with an overwhelming 99.8% of votes in favor.
For a moment it seemed as if peace had triumphed. The two also had ethnic and linguistic affinity and shared business practices and infrastructure. But beneath the smiles and handshakes bubbled up boundaries and pride that simmered like a dormant volcano.
The 1998 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea
Badme, the flashpoint that ignited Africa’s deadliest feud
A clash over the dusty border town of Badme degenerated into a full-blown war in 1998. What started as a scuffle between local patrols turned into one of Africa’s deadliest interstate wars since independence, killing more than 70,000 people in two years.
Eritrea claimed that Ethiopian troops had entered its territory, crossing colonial-era borders. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of ​​invading Ethiopian-ruled territory, and Eritrea countered that it was attacked first. Both accused the other of aggression and both launched brutal offenses.
“We were not fighting for land; we were fighting to maintain our dignity,” said a former Ethiopian commander The New York Times later.
In 2000, Ethiopian troops had invaded deeply into Eritrea’s territory and the two countries signed the Algiers Agreement, brokered by the Organization of African Unity and the United Nations. As part of the peace agreement, a boundary commission was established to demarcate the disputed border.
The border rule that changed nothing
The Eritrean-Ethiopia Boundariy Commission (EBC) ruled that Badme was part of Eritrea in But Ethiopia refused to back down, saying the local population was Ethiopian.
For Eritrea that was a shame against international law. In Ethiopia, the stakes revolved around both political and national solidity. The standoff plunged both sides into a two-decade “no war, no peace” period marked by heavily militarized borders and shattered families divided by checkpoints.
The UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) was established but was later forced to leave in 2008 after Eritrea accused it of cronyism. The border remained frozen and both governments hardened into repressive governments.
The 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea
There was a new man in Ethiopian politics in 2018: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Within months, Abiy announced that Ethiopia would finally fully comply with the border rule, and then flew to Asmara to meet President Isaias Afwerki.
The globe watched as enemies embraced it. The borders were reopened, flights resumed and the two leaders signed a joint declaration of peace and friendship. For his courageous decision, Abiy received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, it was a delicate peace, based on mutual political opportunism rather than reconciliation.
“We used to read so much about each other and now we have seen and touched each other,” Abiy said in Asmara. Yet brotherhood in the Horn of Africa can waltz to the edge of rivalry.
The Tigray War and the Ethiopia-Eritrea Alliance
When Ethiopia became embroiled in civil war in 2020, the former enemies became allies. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Eritrean Armed Forces (EDF) fought together against the TPLF, which had once been the core of the Ethiopian governing coalition.
Eritrea saw this as retaliation against its old enemy; Ethiopia saw it as a strategic necessity. But the alliance was achieved at a terrible human cost.
Foreign observers reported mass killings, systematic rape and widespread looting. The United Nations and Amnesty International accused Eritrean and Ethiopian soldiers of war crimes, calling it one of the worst humanitarian crises of this century.
When the guns fell silent in 2022, an estimated 600,000 people had died in Tigray from fighting or famine.
Also read: Ethiopia’s political transition and its consequences for the Horn of Africa
The Red Sea dimension in the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea
Ethiopia’s quest for port access
As the Tigray war waned, Abiy Ahmed turned his attention north to the Red Sea. Ethiopia has been a landlocked country since its independence from Eritrea and is largely dependent on Djibouti for maritime trade. It pays about $1.5 billion in port fees every year.
In 2023, Abiy declared that Ethiopia’s future depended on gaining “sovereign access to the sea.” His statement alarmed Asmara. Eritrea interpreted this as an existential threat, a harbinger of renewed aggression against the southern port city of Assab.
Analysts say the revival of Ethiopia’s navy and the construction of new military infrastructure near its borders indicate long-term maritime ambitions.
“A country with 120 million inhabitants cannot remain landlocked forever,” Abiy said in a speech to the Ethiopian parliament.
But Eritrea’s response was unequivocal: its sovereignty is non-negotiable.
The role of the UAE in the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea
From mediator to military power broker
In 2018, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh jointly facilitated the peace agreement between Addis Ababa and Asmara, which gained worldwide fame. But when war broke out in Tigray, the UAE’s role changed from mediator to military supplier.
The UAE provided armed drones, surveillance assistance and training for Ethiopian forces from its own military base in Assab, a logistics center for the war in Yemen. Satellite images and flight data suggested that Emirati cargo planes were used to send weapons to Addis Ababa in 2021.
This support helped tilt the battlefield in Ethiopia’s favor, but it also exacerbated Eritrea’s mistrust of its former Gulf ally.
“The UAE has now effectively chosen a side,” the International Crisis Group noted, warning that the Gulf’s militarization of the Red Sea could “rekindle dormant rivalries.”
By 2025, Abu Dhabi had reduced its Assab footprint while also adjusting investments in snow and Ethiopia’s Lamu corridor projects, marginalizing Eritrean furbi.
Also read: The UAE’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa
Why Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the brink again
Access to the sea and economic security
Ethiopia’s landlocked position is both a logistical and psychological burden. The government emphasizes that maritime access, preferably via Assab, is essential for long-term economic stability.
Mutual distrust and betrayal
Eritrea has accused Abiy of betrayal after Tigray, saying he used Eritrean forces to secure victory before then demanding concessions in the Red Sea. Ethiopia, in turn, accuses Eritrea of ​​harboring dissidents and meddling in Tigray’s post-war politics.
Changing regional alliances
Eritrea has moved closer to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while Ethiopia is leaning toward the UAE and Turkey, alliances that reflect broader power competition in the Middle East.
Domestic pressure
Abiy faces growing unrest at home, ethnic violence, inflation and political division. His Red Sea rhetoric helps to strengthen nationalist sentiment and divert attention from internal crises.
Militarization of the Red Sea Corridor
As powers such as the UAE, China and the United States have established bases along the Red Sea, what started as a border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea has turned into a global maritime battle.
The human cost of the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea
The scars of decades of war and militarization are deep. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea are among the most conscripted countries in the world. Eritrea imposes compulsory military service for an indefinite period, causing thousands of people to flee every year.
The World Bank reports that Eritrea’s gross domestic product per capita remains below $600, while border communities in northern Ethiopia continue to face displacement, hunger and trauma.
About 15,000 families separated during the 1998 war remain divided by fences and politics. Along the roads to Zalambessa and Bure, villagers can see relatives across the border, but cannot visit.
“The war is over, but our lives have not yet returned to normal,” said an Eritrean mother The Africa exchange.
Also read: How the Horn of Africa became the most militarized coastline in the world
What the Horn of Africa is learning about the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute
If history is any guide, the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea was never just about land; it is a struggle for identity, sovereignty and survival. Both countries see themselves as heirs to a proud history: Ethiopia as Africa’s uncolonized empire, and Eritrea as the continent’s bastion of resistance.
Diplomats warn that if the Red Sea dispute is not resolved through negotiations, a new phase of war could erupt in the Horn of Africa, destabilizing the fragile peace in East Africa and endangering trade routes vital to the global economy.
Regional bodies such as the African Union and IGAD must urgently push for dialogue, applying the lessons of the 2018 peace agreement while adapting to the new reality, the port economy, migration and the influence of the Gulf.
The Battle for the Red Sea and the Future of Peace
The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not frozen in time; it evolves. Dreaming of a navy without a sea, Ethiopia looks to the blue horizon of the Red Sea, while Eritrea guards its sovereignty as fiercely as ever.
As President Isaias Afwerki recently said in an interview: “For the Horn of Africa, peace will not be about who owns the coast, but about who has the courage to share it.”
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