Umar Nurmagomedov enters UFC 324 as the heavy favorite against Deiveson Figueiredo, with opening odds ranging from -1400 to -2000 at major sportsbooks, translating to an implied win probability of around 80%.
The Dagestani wrestler hasn’t fought since his January loss to Merab Dvalishvili, but returns as the bantamweight division’s No. 1 fighter. Figueiredo is a +850 to +1000 underdog and offers around 20% implied equity despite having 25 career wins and a resume that includes a title reign at flyweight. See more at Hitn Spin Casino.
UFC324 takes place on January 24, 2026 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card marks a historic milestone as the first UFC event to air exclusively on Paramount+, shifting the promotion’s traditional ESPN partnership for this installment. Las Vegas remains the UFC’s home for major events, with T-Mobile Arena hosting some of the organization’s biggest fight nights of the past decade.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo early odds
The stats show why Vegas has made Nurmagomedov such a clear favorite. He scores 4.38 significant blows per minute, compared to Figueiredo’s 2.82: a 55% volume advantage. Nurmagomedov’s 79% takedown defense severely limits Figueiredo’s offensive wrestling, while his damage economy (which absorbs 2.15 strikes per minute versus Figueiredo’s 3.64) aids his ability to get through rounds without taking visible damage. At 29, Nurmagomedov also has a cardio advantage over the 37-year-old Brazilian, whose recent success came at flyweight before moving up to bantamweight for his last four UFC appearances.
Prediction models favor Nurmagomedov via decision with a 52% probability, with knockouts and submissions adding another 13% to his finishing pool. The analytical consensus hinges on wrestling pressure weakening Figueiredo’s explosive defense, compounded by volume attacks that judges typically reward. Nurmagomedov’s record shows that 52.6% of his wins come by decision, reflecting a control-heavy approach that fits perfectly in a three-round format against a smaller, aging opponent.
Figueiredo’s path to victory tightens considerably, but it doesn’t disappear. His knockout percentage sits at an implied probability of 14%, focused squarely on the first round, when his power remains sharp and fresh. The Brazilian once had the fastest submission in UFC flyweight history (1:57 guillotine against Alex Perez) and has five guillotine wins in his arsenal, achievable if Nurmagomedov abandons his game plan or carelessly drops his head. The probability of submissions hovers around 8%, while decision victory is almost impossible at 5%.
The sharps lean Nurmagomedov specifically on decision rather than a straight moneyline, suggesting that early bets at -175 have better value than the outright favorite. Age, size, technical wrestling and volume all add up to a story Vegas has already written. Figueiredo needs the perfect storm, clean power in the pocket, risky jiu-jitsu counters and a Nurmagomedov foul. That storm has a four-to-one chance of not forming
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