Ryan was one of 18 players left out of a deal when the filing deadline passed earlier this month. He is entering his second of three arbitration seasons after making $3 million last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz predicted he would get a $5.8 million raise this year. The Twins were just above that at $5.85 million, while Ryan himself made $6.35 million, a gap of $500,000.
Most teams today take a “file and process” approach, meaning they stop negotiating one-year deals after the filing deadline. This is to give them leverage in pre-deadline talks and also to prevent players from submitting absurdly high numbers in an attempt to take an aggressive negotiating position. An referee can only choose the player’s or team’s number, not a center point.
Even if a team does have a “file and trial policy,” exceptions are made for deals that last longer than a year, even if that extra year is an option. That gives the club the opportunity to avoid a potentially contentious hearing while vaguely sticking to their policies. A deal with an option also cannot be used as a point of comparison in future ARB hearings, which is a factor.
Arbitration hearings are generally viewed as a normal part of business operations, but there have occasionally been situations where the relationship between a player and a team has been damaged. Corbin Burnes said as much after his hearing with the Brewers three years ago. Ryan and the Twins have avoided that possibility by settling for a number between their respective filing numbers.
The mutual option is often just an accounting measure to shift part of the payment to the end of the season through the buyout. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both parties. Even if the option is rejected, Ryan would still be under club control for 2027.
Ryan was involved in some trade rumors last summer when the Twins underwent something of a fire sale. They sold most of their bullpen and Carlos Correa but retained several other players, including Ryan. They were initially expected to look to move him this winter, but have since pivoted to attempting to get back into contention in 2026.
Given his relatively modest salary and extra year of club control, he would still have plenty of trade value at the deadline if he’s healthy and the Twins fall back in the standings. However, the club hopes to avoid that scenario and would prefer to have Ryan pitch meaningful games for the team in September and October.
Minnesota’s arbitration class is now settled. As for the rest of the competition, there will now be no more than 15 hearings this year. As mentioned, 18 players were without a deal at the deadline. Since then Cavalli falls, Bryce Molenaar and now Ryan has made new deals to avoid hearings.
Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images
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