Trump tariffs and Q3 earnings are among eight factors that will impact D-Street this week

Markets witnessed a sharp sell-off last week, with benchmark indices ending firmly in the red as weak global cues and heightened uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Selling pressure intensified towards the end, sending the Sensex down 2.55% to 83,576.24 and the Nifty down 2.45% to 25,683.30 – one of the steepest weekly falls in recent months. The broader markets lagged the frontline indices, reflecting a clear risk-off trend. Global developments dominated the market mood. Fresh concerns about sharply higher US tariffs on Indian exports and continued uncertainty about India-US trade relations fueled risk aversion. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela further dampened confidence, while continued selling by foreign institutional investors kept FIIs net sellers in equities throughout the week.

These are the factors that could determine the direction of the market in the coming week:

1. Third Quarter Earnings: The coming week marks the start of the earnings season, with giants like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, among others, set to report their Q3 FY26 results.

2. Macroeconomic Calendar: The Street will witness a busy macroeconomic calendar. Investors will closely monitor India’s CPI inflation, WPI inflation, trade balance and foreign exchange reserves for clues on inflation trends and external stability.

3. Trump Tariffs: Global markets will be closely watching developments surrounding the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump-era tariffs, which could be a major sentiment driver.

4. Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing geopolitical developments will also remain on investors’ radar.5. FII activity: On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) posted net sales of Rs 3,609 crore in Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 5,341.01 crore.6. Currency Movements: The rupee weakened under pressure from weakness in domestic equity markets and continued FII selling. The volatility of the dollar index, driven by key US economic data, has further weighed on the currency. Increased commodity prices also increase the import bill, keeping the rupee under pressure.

7. Technical factors: The Nifty closed lower for the fifth session in a row and remained under sustained selling pressure. This marked a full-week decline on all five trading days, with a total decline of 2.45%, the highest weekly decline since the week ending September 26, 2025.

“Nifty is now trading below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating a shift towards a positional downtrend. A decisive break below the 100-day EMA, placed at 25619, could accelerate selling towards the next major support at 25,318 (Nov 2025 swing low). Any recovery attempt is likely to encounter stiff resistance in the zone of 25,950-26,000,” said Nandish Shah – Vice Vice President, HDFC Securities.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)