With the addition of Willson Contreras from the Cardinals last night, the Boston Red Sox seemingly no longer have room for Triston Casas in their starting lineup, with Contreras taking over first base duties and Masataka Yoshida lining up for the majority of reps at DH. Casas was a mainstay of the Red Sox lineup in 2023, posting a 131 wRC+ in 132 games, but he played just 92 games over the past two seasons and now his future in Boston hangs in the balance.
Paul Toboni has made one trade with his former club this offseason, trading left-handed pitcher Jake Bennett for right-handed pitcher Luis Perales. He has the opportunity to make another trade and fill a huge need for the Nats by acquiring Triston Casas from the Red Sox. By digging into the Nats’ bullpen or prospect stock again, Toboni can buy low on a first baseman who posted elite batting numbers in his last full season.
One of the biggest concerns people have about Triston Casas is his durability, which is a valid concern considering he hasn’t played a full season in three years now. The reason I wouldn’t worry about these injuries in a potential Casas trade is the fact that they were more bizarre incidents, and not a sign of anything happening. In 2024, he suffered a broken cartilage near his ribcage, which he described as a “car accident in his body” when he swung, but he recovered completely and was ready to go for Opening Day 2025.
His 2025 season was also cut short, this time by a tendon rupture in his left knee while batting an infield single. While both injuries were unfortunate and have left Boston fans frustrated with Casas’ inability to stay on the field, they are also separate injuries that do not indicate future problems.
When healthy, Casas is one of the best first baseman bats in baseball, as evidenced by his impressive 2023 season at just 23 years old, in which he hit 24 home runs and posted a 131 wRC+. Perhaps even more impressive than his results that year were his underlying numbers, which suggested that Casas would continue to chug along this way for quite some time to come.
Of these numbers, the following numbers stand out to me: his 86th percentile barrel speed, 93rd percentile bat speed, and 93rd percentile walk speed, which demonstrate Casas’ rare ability to not only be selective and take his free passes, but also to do damage when he gets his pitch. Some may be concerned about the slow start Casas had in the 2025 season, with just 56 wRC+ in 29 games, but many of his key attributes, such as bat speed and whiff rate, remained right in line with career norms, and he showed signs of warming up before his season-ending injury.
So what would it cost for the Nats to acquire Casas from the Red Sox? While he won’t be a free agent by any means, I think the Nats can get a great deal for Casas because the combination of Toboni’s familiarity with the Red Sox front office, his injury history, and Boston wanting to send him somewhere where he can thrive will allow the Nats to get a bargain.
The Red Sox proved how much they covet big left-handed pitchers when they traded Perales for Bennett from the Nats, and they might be tempted again by the Nats’ Jackson Kent, the 22-year-old who checks in at 6’3. There’s also the possibility that Toboni turns an old-time prospect he doesn’t think much of for Casas, with names like Seaver King and Caleb Lomavita in mind.
There are still plenty of options to fill the Nationals’ hole at first base this season, but if the choice were up to me, I’d put all my chips in on Triston Casas. If Casas continues to fight the injury bug and never reaches the 2023 level again, the reality will be that the price wasn’t high enough for him to cry about. If Casas proves his injuries are a fluke and he is in fact the big bat we saw him be in 2023, the Nationals will have gotten a steal for a heart of the order.
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