Transaction Analysis: Jordan Westburg and the Specters of Future Injuries | Baseball prospectus

Translated by José M. Hernández Lagunes

The Baltimore Orioles have not yet been seeded at 3B Jordaan Westburg on the 60-day injured list (elbow). Baltimore Orioles sign 2B Thairo Estrada on a minor league contract with an invite to spring training.

It wasn’t the best start for the Baltimore Orioles team. Right at the beginning of the camp Jackson vacation he broke the hamate bone in his left hand; In my defense, this is what was “in” at the time. Around the same time, it was noted that Westburg would be brought in slowly as he tended to sustain an oblique injury. Not long after, we started hearing rumors of a more serious injury for Westburg, with manager Craig Albernaz anxiously saying, “Well, I just want to make sure we do our due diligence and make sure Jordan has the best chance to play.” this year“Emphasis mine. It was a bit of a shock to hear the potential extent of the damage, and it wasn’t until a few pictures later that we learned that Westburg has a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament and will attempt to rehabilitate after receiving platelet-rich plasma injections. Understandably, considering the surgery ruined his season, while surgery in June or July, after trying this approach, should have him ready for spring of next year.

We recently posted the Orioles preview, so you know how this affects their on-field prospects. Honestly, I think even that 40% figure for Westburg at third base is potentially fanciful. It’s possible, but I think a lot of his potential to help the team with his bat could mean being limited to second base or designated hitter. Both are troublesome for the Orioles: the designated hitter is tied to Adley Rutschman O Samuel Basallo for the most part, and second base belongs to Holliday until proven otherwise. Holliday is not a good option at third base due to his strong arm, despite appearing as a shortstop in the minor leagues, meaning any second baseman could play Westburg (to relieve pressure on his arm) at the expense of Holliday.

This also means that one of the most interesting and important stories this spring will be the progress and shape of the defense Coby Mayo in the front room. This ignores the question of whether his bat will show up – it didn’t during his stints in the big leagues last year – because simply having a bat with potential at that position would be something to cling to. PECOTA seems to think there may be hope: the model predicts a DRC+ of 95 for May, which is quite encouraging considering his performance in the Majors last year, as it is generally quite conservative for rookies/early career players. On the other hand, there is the newly acquired Blow Alexanderwho can play in multiple positions, but has yet to achieve League average, and has exceeded expectations by not doing so, when asked about the DRC+. If Westburg can’t play, or can’t play third base, it stands to reason that Mayo would be the biggest beneficiary in terms of playing time. The newly signed Estrada has never played more than six games at third base in a Major League season, nor started more than two games there, and appears to have more depth at third base than anything else. Think of it as a less versatile Blaze Alexander.–Craig Goldstein

Chicago Cubs sign left fielder Michael Conforto with a minor league contract.

Hold hands and sing in unison: There’s no such thing as a bad minor league contract, there’s no such thing as a bad minor league contract… the song probably needs a better hook, but we’ll find it.

Listening to Dodgers fans talk about the experience of watching Conforto play baseball is similar to how rebranded fast food companies talk about their past products. “There will come a time when You know that you have to change. You can’t run a business like this unless you have love [a los jardineros que le echan ganas pero son muy malos]”Where’s the love? OBP, reach, power, fresh ingredients… there doesn’t seem to be much love in Conforto’s 137 games. You can imagine a Dodger manager looking at the focus group: “I hear what some people are saying about our product…” “The cardboard complaint is the most common.” “This hits you right in the heart.” “You can use the negative comments to discourage you or to get you excited and energized to do things.” a better pizza“We actually had to start from scratch with a new recipe.”

In case you’re wondering, these are all (more or less) real quotes from when Domino’s Pizza has adopted the bold marketing strategy to announce it publicly His pizza was terrible and you were an idiot for buying it.. Try our new recipe! There is something genuinely bold in the statement: “Not only are our fiercest critics right, but we are going to reorient our entire business to please them.” The Cubs are doing something similar.

It’s a minor league contract. There are no strings attached, more or less (technically you can get less, as you learned). Brent Honeywell by agreeing to a minor league deal with the Giants, which does not include an invitation to major league spring training). Everyone needs depth, and Conforto certainly has it.

It’s just that Conforto is an interesting case study that sheds light on the question “how deep is too deep?” Technically, a WARP of 0.9 in 137 games isn’t unplayable, although the -0.7 rWAR goes much further. But you’d be hard-pressed to find one aspect of the game where Conforto didn’t clearly struggle last year, and the Cubs won 92 games! If they don’t have enough depth or interesting minor league prospects best positioned to take advantage of that playing time, why would they give it to someone who only has a few home runs that turn into fly balls away from the warning zone of an isolated slugging score below .100? Conforto probably won’t have a .468 SLGCON anymore, that is, he probably won’t have that exact mark; No one knows whether it will exceed or lower this. That’s a drop of 49 points from his previous career low, but the good thing about the modern world is that it could always be worse. The Cubs are… about to teach their fans this lesson.–Ginny Searle