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WTA Limoges challenger
Friedsam against Jacquemot
Starts at 5:30 PM
Reliability score 6.5/10
The 6.5 confidence rating was actually due to the fact that I had trouble predicting the winner. I expected an exciting match.
Friedsam served first. She was broken to 30. Jacquemot’s price only fell from 1.51 to 1.42 before the break. This was due to most scoreboards showing the wrong server throughout the match. That also meant that the in-play stats were useless. If you’ve seen any of my videos, you know that I’m constantly monitoring the in-play stats. That made it interesting!
The break should have moved the price to my target price to lay Jacquemot. If it could hold, the market would see it as a breakthrough and we would get a decent price. She held at 0 and her price dropped to 1.34. Close enough to my target of 1.30 and I laid Jacquemot.
In the next game Friedsam was able to easily hold the 0. Jacquemot’s price moved up to 1.45. Easy to hold for Jacquemot in the next game. She led 3-1.
Friedsam was broken in the next game. She had had no blood pressure in the set and had been fractured twice. I got off at 1:22 am. Jacquemot easily held out and made it 5-1. Friedsam was able to easily hold the 15 and get to 2-5. Jacquemot served for the set. When deciding whether or not to make the set 1 winner, I look at how the losing player ended the set. Friedsam did have a BP in the next game, but Jacquemot held out in a long game with 3 deuces. Those last two matches prompted me to follow my pre-match assessment that this would be an exciting match.
Friedsam served first in set 2. She got a break point at 30-40 and I laid Jacquemot at 1.16, hoping Friedsam would recover to hold. She recovered and held serve. Jacquemot’s price rose to 1.27.
In the next game Jacquemot fell behind 15-40. Her price reached 1.43. That was enough to make me a profit. I wanted a higher price so I could possibly hedge for a decent return. I held my position. Jacquemot recovered to hold on! In the next game Friedsam held at 30. Maybe she would break in the next game.
In her next service game, Jacquemot again fell behind 15-40. If she didn’t break this time, I planned to suffer a small loss. A player who misses break points in consecutive games is more likely to become frustrated and break down himself. This time Jacquemot saved the first bp, but was broken. Jacquemot’s price reached 1.55. I removed all liability and left the green on Friedsam. We were already close to their starting prices. If Friedsam could hold serve in the next game, I would hedge.
Friedsam did not have an easy service game. She conceded a break point, but ultimately held her ground. The price reached 1.64 and I hedged evenly. Friedsam got another break to win the set 6-2.
I wasn’t involved in the third set because I had to pick up my wife from work.
In the third set Jacquemot broke and took a 3-2 lead. She held serve in the next game. Friedsam saved a bp in the next game, but held on to make it 3-4.
Jacquemot served at 4-3. It was a tough match, but he held on without encountering a BP. In the next game Jacquemot had 2 match points when Friedsam fell behind 15-40. She recovered to hold on.
Jacquemot still had 2 match points when she served at 5-4. If she couldn’t cope and was ultimately broken. 5-5! Friedsam was reduced to 30 in the next match. Jacquemot would get another chance to serve for the match. There is a pattern in tennis that if a player is broken while serving for a set, if he earns the right to serve again (i.e. gets another break, rather than just having been up by a double break), he usually does much better the second time. That pattern occurred and she stuck to 0.
Jacquemot won 6-2, 2-6, 7-5.
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