“While tin demand cools towards the end of the year, market speculation around supply continues to dominate the story,” said Freddie Mitchell, market analyst at the International Tin Association (ITA).
Research firm BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, expects tin prices to remain supported by ongoing supply issues amid steady demand from the semiconductor industry, keeping markets tense.
Price prediction
“We have revised our annual average tin price forecast for 2026 to $35,000/ton from $32,000/ton previously,” the report said.
Crux Investor’s Ryan Charles said tighter ore supply in China’s Yunnan province is supporting price resilience in the short term.
“The weakness in demand for traditional electronics is being offset by structural growth in AI computers, semiconductor fabrications and photovoltaics, paving the way for multi-year demand,” Charles said.
Currently, the three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange is $38,125 per tonne. The metal, which is also used in food cans, plumbing and alloy production, is up more than 30 percent this year.
Vulnerable offer
ITA’s Mitchell said: “Weaker-than-expected Indonesian exports in October boosted bullish sentiment, although we warn that exports will recover sharply in November, with the monthly total already higher than the entire October monthly total.”
BMI, citing ITA, said shipments from Myanmar’s Wa state will resume in the coming months as several operators at Man Maw have reportedly secured three-year mining permits. However, as of November 24, there was no substantial update on this.
Myanmar’s junta suspended tin mining in Wa province in August 2023. It was reported that mining was allowed this year, but it can now resume.
Crux Investor said global tin supply remains vulnerable to disruptions due to political instability in Myanmar and Indonesia’s tightened export controls.
‘Wait and Watch’
Mitchell said rumors of accelerated progress in Wa “appear to be just rumors,” and that resumption remains slow. “The impact of the temporary closure of Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port – a key export route for African tin concentrates – remains to be seen,” he said.
“We have adopted a wait-and-see approach as news of a resumption of tin mining in Wa State has been circulating in the markets for months without actually materializing,” BMI said.
For example, in March 2025, after a nearly two-year shutdown, authorities declared that tin mining could resume in Wa State, with new permits required for miners wishing to undertake projects in the area. However, further talks were postponed in April 2025 due to an earthquake in the region.
Historically, Myanmar has been the third largest tin producer in the world. According to data from the United States Geological Survey, the country is estimated to have the third largest reserves in the world, with 700 kt or 15 percent of total global reserves, after China and Indonesia (800 kt and 720 kt respectively).
Traders said high prices are now affecting demand, but the situation reflected supply problems.
Recovery of Indonesian exports
BMI said that due to an ongoing shortage of tin concentrates, operating rates at China-based smelters, especially in Yunnan and Jiangxi, were around half of full capacity in July 2025, with only a slight improvement to more than 60 percent in November 2025.
Indonesian tin exports have begun to recover since February 2025, with refined tin exports totaling 37,551 tons from January to October 2025. These were driven by renewed mining permits in July and August and export approvals, leading to a significant increase in exports in the third quarter, BMI said.
“That said, exports fell sharply in October 2025 compared to October 2024 due to intensified government control of illegal mining,” the research firm said.
BMI said economic activity globally has shown resilience despite being subdued compared to periods of high growth, leading to improved demand.
Global tin stocks have started to rise slightly but remain low, exposing the tin market to periods of volatility, the report said.
Published on November 28, 2025
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