In this current NBA era, where injuries are common and rest nights are necessary to preserve knees, ankles and all manner of soft tissue, it’s refreshing to see the best compete against the best with everyone watching. The NBA has officially taken over weekend bookings for sports fans, and Sunday Night Basketball on NBC opens with a doubleheader that even the casuals can co-sign.
In the Sunday nightcap, the Oklahoma City Thunder head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. The two best teams in the Western Conference, the two NBA championship favorites, the two most recent Most Valuable Player award winners, the league’s premier offense against the best defense; what’s not to love?
Thunder vs. Nuggets odds, prediction
Nikola Jokic has been back on the field for just one game after hyperextending his knee in late December and missing 16 games to recover. In his return he looked as dominant as ever. Jokic played just 25 minutes and scored 31 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and added five assists against the Clippers, who have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month.
What’s more interesting about the Nuggets is what they learned while Jokic was recovering. The injury bug has bitten them often this season, sidelining four of their five opening night starters for extended periods. Christian Braun has missed 35 games, Aaron Gordon has missed 26 and Cam Johnson has missed 21 as all three are listed as out for tonight.
These injuries allowed their bench to flourish alongside Jamal Murray, who is having the best season of his career. Peyton Watson has made the biggest leap of anyone on the team. Since becoming a full-time starter, Watson is averaging 17.4 points per game and shooting 43 percent from beyond the arc, which easily surpasses the 8.1 points he scored last season. He made the most of his opportunity to play more minutes with Jokic out, scoring 22.1 points during that 16-game stretch.
While the Nuggets have thrived because of their depth, the Thunder have hit a rough patch, in part because they couldn’t maximize their bench. To be clear, a rough stretch for the Thunder is 14-10, but when a team opens the season 24-1, expectations can get out of hand. At full strength, the Thunder have a phenomenal reserve unit, led by Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ajay Mitchell.
Mitchell is not in the lineup tonight and that is a bad sign for the Thunder this season. If he doesn’t suit up, the Thunder are 1-5 this season. The Thunder may be able to weather his absence tonight, but Alex Caruso and Jalen Williams will join Mitchell in street clothes as they recover from injuries. This horde of inactives leaves them extremely thin and forces them to rely even more than usual on the greatness of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Even if the Thunder are thin, they are still a great team, but should they be a 7.5-point favorite on the road? I’m sceptical. With their star off the floor, I don’t see how they’ll make up the margin against a Nuggets group that’s firing on all cylinders.
Bet on the NBA?
The trends here point to the Nuggets.
As an underdog, Denver is 11-4 against the spread this season. They’ve proven they can win with or without Jokic and I bet they can keep this one close at home.
The Pick: Nuggets +7.5 (-102, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He is a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and martial arts. He spends his winter weeknights looking for NBA player prop benefits with more money.
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