Stellar (XLM) is retesting the key $0.23 level after previous rallies of 33-133%. A falling wedge is once again forming as traders eye a possible breakout.
Attention is focused on whether the support zone around $0.23 will again produce a move like earlier this year.
Price returns to Key Support
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that XLM has risen from the $0.23 level three times this year. The token rose 33% in March, 48% in April and 133% in July after reaching this support. It is now back in the same zone and the market is waiting for signs of a similar reaction.
$XLM has risen 33%, 48% and 133% the last three times it reached $0.23.
Will it happen again? pic.twitter.com/IlM5oz2NNh
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 23, 2025
Notably, the current setup shows the price testing support after a steady decline from the $0.40 range. The broader trend is down and momentum is weaker than during previous touches at this level. Although the past shows a pattern of strong rebounds, there is no confirmation yet that the same outcome will follow.
In addition, Elite Crypto noted that XLM has formed a second falling wedge pattern, similar to the one seen earlier this year. The first wedge led to a breakout and a strong rally. Now the asset is again near the upper limit of the wedge. The structure includes a series of lower peaks that compress toward support.
The analyst stated that if the breakout mirrors the previous move, a 100% increase from current levels “will be very possible.” The pattern is being monitored, but no breakout has occurred yet.
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Technical conditions show weakness
On the daily chart, XLM trades below all major exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA is at $0.26, while the 50-day is close to $0.29. The price would need to move above these levels to show early strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 38, slightly above the recent low, indicating that selling has slowed but not reversed.
A near-term recovery would require a close above the 20-day EMA. Until then, the trend remains down and there are still lower highs.
Exchange Flow shows small inflow
Data from November 24 shows net inflows of $685.85K in spot exchanges. This is the first positive flow after a long period of outflows dating back to mid-year. This earlier outflow matched the steady price decline of $0.50.
The inflows are small and may reflect traders’ short-term positioning. It does not yet indicate a clear change in sentiment.
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