This major barrier could spark another massive Bitcoin rally

Bitcoin is trading below the $119,000 resistance, with technical and on-chain data pointing to a possible breakout if key levels are breached soon.

Bitcoin is trading just below a long-term resistance level that has marked major turning points in previous market cycles. The asset was at around $112,100 at the time of writing, down slightly in the past 24 hours and down 8% in the past week.

While short-term performance is weak, some technical and internal indicators point to possible strength building in the background.

Log curve and RSI near crucial levels

Bitcoin’s price is approaching the top of its long-term logarithmic curve, a level that has served as a ceiling in previous cycles. According to EtherNasyonaL, BTC “hasn’t even broken above the logarithmic curve resistance yet”, and the market tends to gain speed when this resistance is crossed.

Bitcoin Top is not in. 🔃$BTC has not yet even broken above the resistance of the logarithmic curve, so there is no doubt that the parabolic run will continue.

As in previous cycles, the market moved quickly when this curve was broken.

Moreover, the RSI is not even in the… pic.twitter.com/JjH99Fot2M

— EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL 💹🧲 (@EtherNasyonaL) October 14, 2025

Meanwhile, the monthly RSI is also near 72, but remains below the long-term trend line. In 2017, the RSI broke the same trend line shortly before the price rose sharply. The current setup shows that the price and RSI are close to similar conditions again, although no breakout has been confirmed so far.

Additionally, the 4-hour chart shows Trader Tardigrade noted that Bitcoin is forming a double bottom pattern. The second low is higher than the first, which is often a signal that sellers are losing steam and buyers may turn back.

The resistance line, or neckline, of this pattern is around $116,000. A step above this level would confirm the intent. Until that happens, the pattern remains unconfirmed. This type of structure has led to upward movements before, but only when the neckline has been released with volume.

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Price levels mark $119,000 as the key level

Glassnode’s MVRV price model places the current Bitcoin price just below the +0.5 standard deviation band, which is around $119,000. Analyst Ali Martinez said:

Bitcoin $BTC Needs to claw back $119,000 to keep the bullish momentum alive! Otherwise, the price bands signal a correction towards $96,530. pic.twitter.com/I7IGhKcXjX

— Ali (@ali_charts) October 15, 2025

If not, a decline toward the model’s average of $96,526 is possible.

These price bands are used to map past tops and bottoms. Bitcoin is now in the mid-range, with no clear direction until it crosses above or below one of these thresholds.

Data about the chain shows a change in market behavior

Data from XWIN Research Japan suggests Bitcoin is now in a later stage of the cycle. The net unrealized gain/loss (NUPL) is +0.52. In recent years, this level has marked a shift from growing optimism to more speculative behavior. About 97% of the offering is now profitable.

Short-term holders now represent 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This is the highest recorded level. It shows that many long-term owners are selling as newer buyers step in. According to XWIN: “This time the structure seems different,” pointing to ETF inflows and broader liquidity as stabilizing forces.

As long as the price remains below the resistance, the breakout is still not confirmed. A move above $119,000, along with a break in the RSI, could indicate the trend is continuing.