Kevin Szafraniec breaks down Javonte Williams’ a hot start to the 2025 season and is using advanced metrics from RotoViz and SIS to determine if its current production is sustainable.
In a season full of redemption arcs, Javonte Williams’ recovery may be the most unexpected of them all. Expectations weren’t necessarily high after he signed a one-year, $3.0 million deal at the start of free agency to join the Cowboys, especially after Miles Sanders was later added in free agency and Dallas selected Jaydon Blue And Phil Mafah in the design.
After a breakout rookie season in 2021, a catastrophic knee injury hampered Williams’ career four games into his second year in the NFL. While he was able to return in 2023 and appear in 16 games, he was never the same for the remainder of his tenure in Denver, putting up back-to-back PPR RB30 seasons while his involvement in the offense steadily declined.
As imaginative as Williams was as a rookie, he was never really an efficient player during his time in Denver. He didn’t have a single positive fantasy points above expectation (FPOE) season and failed to ever rank higher than 134th at the running back position in FPOE.
If Williams had any saving grace over the past few seasons, it was his skill as a receiver. At no point in his career has Williams dropped below a 10% goal share, including two seasons of matching 13% goal shares in 2023 and 2024. Outside of his injury-shortened 2022 season, Williams never saw fewer than 53 goals, with a career high of 70 in his final season with the Broncos.
Given Williams’ career trajectory over the past two seasons, we can be forgiven for being a little skeptical of his RB5 performance in Week 1, in which his 3.5 yards per carry was offset by two touchdowns. But then he came out in Week 2 and finished as the RB4 for the week, putting up almost 100 yards at a 5.4-yard clip. And the story remained much the same this past Sunday, when Williams was the driving force behind the Cowboys’ big win over the Commanders.
Seven games into the season, and the only team Williams has been able to contain is the Panthers in Week 6. Furthermore, he hasn’t finished lower than RB15 in any week, breaking off big plays with regularity and looking like one of the strongest runners in the NFL.
| Week | They will resist | PPR | PPR Rk | EP | FPOE | RuAtt | Destroy | YPC | RuTD | Tgt | Request | RecYd | YPR | RecTD | PPR/area |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20.4 | 5 | 17.9 | 2.5 | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1.13 |
| 2 | N.Y.G | 25.0 | 4 | 18.6 | 6.4 | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 | 1.00 |
| 3 | CHI | 14.2 | 15 | 13.8 | 0.4 | 10 | 76 | 7.6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | 0.95 |
| 4 | GB | 19.0 | 14 | 22.6 | -3.6 | 20 | 85 | 4.2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0.83 |
| 5 | NYJ | 26.9 | 6 | 17.3 | 9.6 | 16 | 135 | 8.4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1.49 |
| 6 | AUTO | 8.4 | 27 | 20.1 | -11.7 | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 |
| 7 | LAUNDRY | 18.8 | 9 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 19 | 116 | 6.1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.82 |
Based on Williams’ previous seasons in Denver, I started fading him this summer when his price tag reached the 10th round, eventually landing on the younger and (what at the time was perceived as the) more exciting option in Blue.
As skeptical as I was about Williams during the first few weeks of the season, the results we’re seeing now are hard to argue with. It may have taken three years, but he’s finally showing fantasy managers that he still has some of the juice that made him such a coveted asset just a few years ago.
So how exactly has Williams crafted his career renaissance, and what are the chances he can keep it up for the rest of the season?
A boost at the front
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