These companies will be the first to crack personal autonomy, according to you – Jalopnik

Like it or not, autonomy is coming to a vehicle near you… probably. I don’t have a crystal ball or anything like that, but with the way things are going and with the amount of money being poured into these efforts, a company will discover personal autonomy before anyone else does. That idea brought me to my question from last week.

I asked you which automaker or company you all thought would be the first to discover personal autonomy, and I’ll tell you what: a lot of you seem to be on the same page. A whole group of people seem to agree with me: it will be Mercedes-Benz or General Motors, but Waymo could also be thrown into the mix, or perhaps one of the Chinese automakers. As expected, a lot of you think this will simply never happen, and while I’m not so sure, it’s not up to me to decide who’s right and wrong in the dome of thunder that is Answer of the Day.

Anyway, why don’t you see which companies your fellow Jalops think will be the first to crack personal autonomy? Before you go, bookmark this page for future reference when an automaker actually does this.

When it comes to automotive technology, I’m all over GM, to the point where you could say I’m glazing mercilessly, but I’ll keep it short. Their Super Cruise is phenomenal. Give them a few years and they’ll have it.

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It will be GM as long as the bean counters don’t fit in it.

Submitted by: Anthony Chua & Midwestracer

If, and it’s a big IF, someone actually achieves full autonomy (which I don’t think will ever happen), I agree that Mercedes will probably be the first to do it right. I don’t trust startups or China to have more than a facade of autonomy before they say they’ve done it. Mercedes, on the other hand, has a history of making safety a priority for all their vehicles and takes a slow and steady approach, and they are actually showing results.

Submitted by: Wantsamanuelalpharomero

I think you’re right about Alphabet. They don’t have to worry about making a car, just making a good autonomous driving system. Then they license it so that companies can use it. Companies that do not have such a system in the works will build their own car around Alphabet’s system. Soon it will prove to be better or worse than the competition. If things are better, other companies will drop their internal systems and adopt Alphabet’s. If things get worse, Alphabet will simply cut its losses and move on to the next big tech thing.

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Waymo is pretty much already there. I sometimes drive in LA (not by choice), and I barely notice the Waymos. They still have a way to get rid of little quirks, but they are super close… Now I believe most of the users on this system will be Rolls Royce and Maybach owners as they could save on driver work =)

Submitted by: Minivanman & Agon Targeryan

I agree that Merc and GM are top contenders, but BMW is at the top. I have the DAPP package on my iX, which allows me to drive hands-free on highways and change lanes by looking at the door mirrors or tapping the lever. It’s not perfect, but it certainly helps take some of the strain off the driver on long highway rides. I take my family to a lake every year that is about 300 miles long, and this was my first year in the iX. The route has less traffic and is perfect for DAPP. I felt significantly less tired and in a better mood when I arrived, despite having driven for about five hours.

And like Merc, they currently have a true Level 3 system available in Germany (Personal Pilot L3 Package) which is limited to 60 km/h, but as technology improves the speed limit and availability will improve.

Submitted by: ODDseth

If it happens, it will be Toyota. Toyota always manages to be on top.

Submitted by: Joe Stricker

So you know the old meme where it’s a picture of Batman next to the Batmobile in the Batcave and the caption reads, “Men will literally become Batman instead of going to therapy?”

I have a feeling these are self-driving cars. We would rather invest billions in a technology that might work as long as conditions are perfect (and even then only most of the time) than invest in public transportation systems that have been proven to work literally anywhere in the world.

You know what you don’t need if you have good, functioning public transportation? An AI-controlled car. Drunk? Take a tram. Or a bus. Or whatever. And that public transport system? it will do more and cost less. It works when it rains. It works when it’s dark. One driver for 100 people, no AI needed, no sensor suite, no LIDAR, no RADAR, just a guy at the front paying attention to the rules and following a set route.

We want to feel special: “Oh, I need a car because (fill in the reason that your city/province has decided to outsource the planning to real estate speculators) but with better planning, with just a little bit of “hey, I’m a special individual, but I’m also a member of an association”.

Submitted by: Buckfiddious

A number of companies are more likely to claim to have achieved that goal (hasn’t Tesla already?) than reality will back them up. Yes, I agree that China will probably get there first, but I would question its effectiveness in the real world.

Submitted by: Not me

Tesla or China. Lol at Super Cruise, it’s just ACC + Lane assist. And the Mercedes system only works on highways under 80 km/h or something like that?

Waymo may have the best technology, but it’s not designed for “personal” use.

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Doesn’t Tesler already have a fully autonomous car, that roadster in orbit? Millions of kilometers have been traveled without anyone behind the wheel.

Submitted by: PitaChipsWithLotsOfHummus & Frank Haas

The one that doesn’t rush it out the door, trying to get an immediate ROI on it, knowing that it’s going to take a lot of investment in time and capital before it’s ready for prime time.

Good luck finding such a company. Long-term planning goes against the core beliefs of their investor/private equity overlords.

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Any company that wants to invest in it, and is also very popular, like GM and Ford

Submitted by: Dr.Xyster & Mustangmania

Without artificial general intelligence or smart roads and a smart grid where 100% of vehicles are on that network, we will never have personal autonomy.

If we achieve artificial general intelligence which opens up a whole different can of worms, for example if your car is intelligent, is it slavery to let you drive around?

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Vehicles will have to ‘talk’ to each other to be able to drive fully autonomously. If one car doesn’t know what the other is doing or what’s coming in front of it, it’s always going to be a little unsafe. So until Taco Bell wins the car wars and becomes the only option, we’re stuck.

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Unfortunately, there is currently no project that will ever lead to autonomous driving. So trying to choose between Mercedes, Waymo and China is a bit pointless. Why would I say this? Well, unlike the companies mentioned where people train neural networks and then cross their fingers and hope, I worked out the basic requirements for autonomous driving a few years ago.

There is no project that can ever meet these minimum requirements. You can’t solve it with more memory, faster processors or more training because that’s not the nature of the problem. You’re trying to find a software or technical solution for something that is neither. Autonomous driving will require advances in scientific theory before a development project is possible.

Waymo is only slightly better than what we had twenty years ago. Tesla’s FSD is about half as safe as a car without driver assistance. Mercedes, General Motors and Ford are similar, but none of them have unlimited level 3. I’m sorry because I know a lot of people are excited about the idea and even fantasize that it’s around the corner, but none of that is real.

Submitted by: Psycho78 & Kenny Lankford & BA_Rehl