Tomorrow is a very important day in the MLB offseason. Tomorrow night, teams must decide whether to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. When they tender a player, the arbitration process begins. If not, the player becomes a free agent. Paul Toboni has some interesting decisions to make over the next 24 to 36 hours.
MLB Trade Rumors does an excellent job following the arbitration process. Their arbitration pay estimates are usually spot on and are a great resource for fans. They also come up with a list of players who may not have been offered. Three Nationals were on their list of non-tender candidates. They were Riley Adams, Jake Irvin and Luis Garcia Jr.
Of the three, Adams is likely not to be tendered. His projected salary is only $1.5 million, but Adams hasn’t proven himself to be even a capable backup catcher. Despite his great raw power, Adams has struggled mightily on the offensive end over the past two years. He is also a poor defensive catcher because of his lack blocking and framing skills. Adams has elite bat speed, but he hasn’t been able to translate that into production.
In total, the Nationals have seven players eligible for arbitration. MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray are candidates for a contract. Gore and Abrams need no explanation. However, Gray and Cavalli are closed due to their low salary projections and upside. For me, Jake Irvin and Luis Garcia Jr. the really interesting decisions here.
Let’s start with Irvin, because this one snuck up on me. Before the arbitration projection numbers were released, I hadn’t thought about the idea of not drafting Irvin. However, his projected salary of $3.3 million complicates matters. Based on last season, Irvin wouldn’t be worth that number. He posted an ERA of 5.70, which is the worst among qualified starters.
Irvin looked really bad for most of the season. His speed was slow, making the big right-hander extremely hitable. The 38 home runs he allowed were the most in baseball. However, he did complete 180 turns for the second season in a row. There is inherent value in that durability, especially if he can get his ERA back into the low-to-mid 4s.
If Paul Toboni and his staff think they can get Irvin’s speed back and make a few adjustments, they will likely offer him a contract. Irvin showed upside mid-rotation in 2024 and if he can bounce back from that, the $3.3 million will be a steal. However, if the new front office thinks 2025 will show the real Jake Irvin, the best choice would be not to tender him. You can find someone who eats innings and pitches poorly for the league minimum.
This brings us to the most fascinating discussion about Luis Garcia Jr. He is expected to earn $7 million, which is quite a high price. Like Irvin, Garcia’s production in 2025 doesn’t justify that salary. Him alone posted 0.7 fWAR in 139 games and was below average on both sides of the ball. However, the 25-year-old was excellent in 2024, posting a three-war season.
If he can get back to that level, his salary would be a steal. The problem is that Garcia hasn’t been very good outside of that 2024 season. I actually have more confidence in his bat than his glove. Last season, Garcia was extremely unlucky.
In 2025, Garcia posted a .337 xwOBA compared to a .300 wOBA. Garcia’s xwOBA, average exit velocity, barrel velocity, hard hits, and expected batting average were all better in 2025 than his breakout season of 2024. This gives me confidence that Garcia can become an above-average hitter again, because he was when you look at the numbers under the hood.
However, I am less optimistic about his defense. While Garcia was an above-average defender at second base in 2024, that seems like an outlier. He looked less athletic in 2025, which was backed up by the numbers. Garcias sprint speed went from the 45th percentile to the 25th percentile. His range suffered from his diminished athleticism. We even saw him play first base at the end of the season.
Garcia is also a platoon bat, but the fact that he is a left-handed hitter means he is on the strong side of a platoon. He just hit .179 against left-handed pitching last season and has historically struggled against lefties. If he can no longer play second base, it’s hard to justify a $7 million price tag for a platoon first baseman with holes in his offensive game.
However, Garcia is still so young at 25 years old and has shown in the past to be a good starting second baseman. This is a very difficult decision for Paul Toboni and I could see it going both ways. If Garcia is let go, I could see it coming back to bite the Nats in the future. However, he has only been worth $7 million once in his career.
These decisions will tell us a lot about Toboni’s thought process and what he thinks about these players. It will also be interesting to follow what other teams are doing. The non-tender deadline will create a deeper pool of free agents. There are a few non-tender prospects the Nats would like to sign, including Jonah Heim, Ryan Mountcastle and Jonathan India. Tomorrow is a big day for Paul Toboni and it will be the first time he has to make really difficult selection decisions.
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