Early voting is in full swing in Virginia’s general election. The results could determine whether abortion remains fully legal and widely available in this southern battleground state.
If the Democrats maintain their position narrow majority they are likely to succeed in the 100-seat House of Representatives a voting initiative asked voters to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution by 2026. The Democratic-led Senate approved the measure in January 2025but must pass an identical proposal in the next legislative session before a constitutional amendment can be put to voters.
If Republicans regain the legislative majority they had until the 2019 election, they would likely block that effort.
Virginia currently allows abortion during the second trimester of pregnancy to about 27 to soften. Later abortions are allowed if the pregnancy is life-threatening. It is the only Southern state that has not introduced new abortion restrictions since the Supreme Court ruling Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Virginians will also choose their next governor in November. The Democratic candidate, former US Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, has done so made protecting reproductive rights a central part of her campaign. Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s current lieutenant governor, said this she is “morally opposed” to abortion and has expressed support for banning abortion after both six weeks or 15 weeks.
In a governor’s debate on October 9Spanberger accused her opponent of wanting to impose on Virginia the kind of extreme abortion restrictions passed in nearby states.
“Women have died,” she said of those laws.
Purple state politics
Spanberger, who was that? endorsed by former President Barack Obama on October 16“has actually been the favorite in the governor’s race all along,” Kyle Kondik said in an interview with Newsgroup rewiring. Kondik is the editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an independent newsletter from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
In recent weeks, Spanberger has been rough The 12-point lead in the polls has been reduced to around 2 to 9 points. The decline followed revelations the Democratic candidate for attorney general of Virginia, Jay Jonessent text messages in 2022 in which he viciously insulted a Republican colleague. Yet Spanberger remains the leader.
A Spanberger victory does not in itself guarantee that abortion will remain protected in Virginia. Because lawmakers must reauthorize the abortion amendment to get it on the ballot, the balance in the Virginia Legislature will likely have a more direct impact on abortion rights, Kondik said.
Even like Earle-Sears – who has done that not endorsed by President Donald Trump— was in the way of the governor’s race, he said, “The Democrats would probably still be favored to take the House of Representatives.”
Virginia, a former Republican stronghold democratically run during the election of Barack Obama in 2008, a “purple” state. The Governor’s Mansion has changed party hands regularly over the past 30 years, and in 2017 the House of Representatives evenly distributed at 50-50.
But apart from the convincing centrist voters who do attract national media attentionVirginia has large pockets of deep conservatism, and those areas do too moved to the right with the Republican party. Meanwhile, growing urban areas lean left.
The current governor of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, is a right-wing Republican and Trump ally (Youngkin has a legal term). But his record on reproductive rights is less extreme than that of any other Southern Republican governor.
In the 2023 state legislative race, Youngkin rallied Republican candidates around a plans to impose a 15-week limit on abortion— a position he apparently hoped could help his party gain control of the statehouse. In 2024, Youngkin signed a law supported by abortion advocates prohibits the use of search warrants, subpoenas, or court orders to obtain private digital health data.
(Read more: Big Tech is Coming for Your Health Data. How to Protect Your Information)
But Youngkin also vetoed bills that would have protected reproductive rights. including ‘shield laws’ seek to protect abortion providers in Virginia from civil and criminal prosecution for prescribing abortion drugs to patients in states that ban them.
Spanberger, from Virginia’s 7th District, has continued to build her political career win against centrists and moderates. She turned her Richmond suburb from reliably Republican to nominally Democrat in 2018, amid dissatisfaction with the extremism of President Donald Trump’s first term. Then in 2020, she barely held on to her seatof just over 50 percent of the votesAnd won it again in 2022more comfortable.
If Spanberger becomes Virginia’s next governor, she has pledged to maintain Virginia’s existing protections (and restrictions) on abortion access.
“I support current laws in Virginia,” she said in the Oct. 9 debate, “which, among other things, imposes restrictions on minors obtaining abortions, including restrictions after the second trimester.”
Spanberger added: “I support the Roo standard,” referring to the now-defunct 1973 Supreme Court ruling that abortion care is a private medical decision that a pregnant person must make until fetal viability, which is generally considered to be about 24 to 26 weeks.
That remains the norm in Virginia, and the proposed ballot measure on abortion would essentially codify the current law as a constitutional state right.
The next governor will have little say in that initiative other than a review of how the measure is worded in the final vote, experts say. If voters are given the opportunity to vote on the amendment and ultimately approve the measure, their decision will become law.
Until that happens, however, the governor has significant control over the regulation of abortion care, said Vivian Hamilton, a professor at William & Mary Law School.
“Since there is no constitutional right, continued access is not safe,” Hamilton said. “A governor can absolutely influence lawmakers’ ability to protect reproductive rights.”
For example, with a Democratic governor and a Democratic-led Legislature, Virginia could join the growing ranks of blue states passing “shield laws.”
(Read more: Patients in states with abortion bans are the highest users of abortion telemedicine)
Regional destination
Virginia is already a destination state for out-of-state patients seeking or needing an abortion, said Autumn Celeste, communications director for the Blue Ridge Abortion Fund, which serves Virginians seeking abortions and out-of-state patients traveling to Virginia for care.
Abortion funds help patients find clinics and pay for their abortion care. Sometimes they also arrange child care and support patient care after the procedure.
After Roo fell, Celeste said, “the states around us quickly passed abortion bans.”
Neighboring North Carolina now bans abortion after 12 weeks. Florida and Georgia both ban it after six weeks, with some exceptions. Tennessee has a total abortion ban with limited exceptions.
Today, out-of-state patients make up about 25 percent of callers to the Blue Ridge Abortion Fund, up from about 15 percent previously. Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organizationthe Supreme Court case that was overturned Roowas decided, Celeste said. North Carolina, Florida and Georgia top the list.
Other data support this observation. According to figures, clinics in Virginia performed 6,600 more abortions in 2024 than in 2023. the Guttmacher Institutea research organization that aims to improve reproductive rights. The number of out-of-state patients increased by about 4,400. A policy advisor to Guttmacher mainly attributed that spike to Florida’s six-week abortion ban in May 2024.
“Virginia is really holding the line for abortion seekers in the South,” Celeste added. “And that is something we are proud of.”
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