The Twins starting rotation is expected to be better than fans might think in 2026

The 2025 season was disappointing all around. The Minnesota Twins couldn’t get it done at the plate, on the bases, on defense or on the mound. But 2025 is behind us. It’s time to look ahead as a new manager leads this franchise.

Fans should be excited, but if they aren’t already, FanGraphs’ latest starting rotation projections should add a little spark. The Twins’ rotation is projected to be the 11th most productive in baseball, and sixth among American League clubs.

The Minnesota Twins starting pitching is progressing well for the 2026 season

1. Joe Ryan

We love Joe Ryan around these parts. He had one of the best starting pitching performances of this century in a single season, and he deserves to be named the game’s best.

Ryan, entering his sixth MLB season, is projected to have a rotation high of 3.4 fWAR. His projected ERA of 3.84 feels a bit high, considering his last two campaigns were well below that. Either way, we’re excited for another season under Joe Ryan in Minnesota.

2. Pablo López

López’s health should now be good after suffering from hamstring, shoulder and forearm problems in 2025. He still recorded a 2.74 ERA, but only in 14 starts. He is projected to be right behind Ryan with a 3.2 fWAR with a 3.83 ERA.

3. Bailey Waiter

We know that Ryand López will produce in 2026. This is where things get a bit murky in the Twins’ rotation, but Ober is expected to use his elite pursuit speed and run speed to his advantage. Ober’s awful June inflated his total numbers, but when you look at his full body of work, there’s reason for fans to believe Ober can put together a complete season.

If he does that, this staff would become one of the best in the AL. He is projected to have a 1.7 fWAR.

4. Simeon WoodsRichardson

SWR has a solid arsenal of four pitches that can keep hitters off balance. He just needs to perform better, but we saw him get comfortable along the way. In September, he allowed seven runs in 27 innings with 36 strikeouts. That level of dominance will go to the bottom of the rotation, where he is projected to bring in an fWAR of 1.2.

5. Zebby Matthews

Matthews will compete for the final spot in the rotation, but FanGraphs has him at 105 expected innings with a 1.7fWAR. The right-handed flamethrower could very well earn that spot, and he provides a lifeline at the bottom of the order if the Twins need a win.

Other options: Mick Abel and Taj Bradley

Honestly, both youngsters deserve a shot at the rotation in 2026, it’s just a matter of which one gets the better chance. Injuries are also inevitable, so if another arm goes down, let’s hope Abel or Bradley can step up and prove why they were among the game’s best pitchers.