The Red Sox’ potential Achilles heel visible in 2026 projections

The Red Sox’ potential Achilles heel visible in 2026 projections

The Boston Red Sox may have a problem in 2026.

The Red Sox have lost a significant amount of power from their lineup in recent months. Designated hitter Rafael Devers, who hit 15 home runs in 73 games in Boston, was traded to the Giants in a deal that could be considered addition by subtraction. Third baseman Alex Bregman left in free agency after the Red Sox reportedly didn’t believe he had received an offer from the Cubs. While Bregman isn’t the same type of power hitter as Devers, his 18 home runs in 2025 were third-most on the Red Sox roster.

These losses can be found in at least one projection model. Zippers, a projection system created by Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs, don’t expect the Red Sox to let a single player hit at least 20 home runs. The Red Sox do the only team there won’t be 20+ home run hitters in those projections.

The Boston Red Sox’ lack of power could derail their 2026 hopes

The Red Sox have taken steps to address the lineup. First baseman Willson Contreras was acquired from the Cardinals to give Boston a more consistent option. Contreras hit at least 20 home runs in four of his last five seasons; however, his career high is 24 home runs.

Likewise, shortstop Trevor Story and outfielder Wilyer Abreu crossed the 20-home run threshold for the Red Sox in 2025. Story, who led the Red Sox with 25 home runs, played in more than 100 games for the first time since 2021, making him a risky option to bank on for a full season. Abreu may get more recognition for his defensive skills, but he has also improved his on-base and contact percentages in 2025. He might be the Red Sox’ best power option.

Since the Red Sox are expected to compete in 2026, any shortcomings will likely be addressed before the trade deadline. However, if the Red Sox stumble out of the gate due to their lineup, their expected lack of power could be the reason.

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