The Rangers’ offensive problems include a lack of creativity

The Rangers’ offensive problems are starting to become annoying. As JT Miller said: it’s not fun anymore. By all accounts, the Rangers were a somewhat solid team at 5v5. They’re not perfect, of course, and there are a lot of grill holes, but the process has been there. The point is that you can only talk about the process about the results for so long before the results have to start showing up. It’s been fourteen games and Rangers still haven’t won at home. They scored just six goals at MSG, five in one game against the lowly San Jose Sharks. That’s historically bad.

The left heatmap above shows the Rangers’ shooting rate based on their shots in the offensive zone. Blue means a lower recording speed (bad), red is a higher recording speed (good). The end result of the Rangers’ offensive problems is essentially poor shooting percentages in high-danger areas. This isn’t normal and will likely get worse, meaning we should see these goals coming at some point. Their shots from high danger hit the goalkeepers at the top, and this team is too good to let that continue.

But.

The right heat map shows where the Rangers are making their shots in the offensive zone. Red means more shots, blue means fewer shots. In general, you want more red closer to the net and then fade to lighter reds and blues as you move into the low-danger areas. If you see what I see, you also see the Rangers’ offensive problems. They lack creativity. If it’s not a net advance or a point shot, they postpone it.

The Rangers are predictable right now. Predictable in hockey is not good, it is easy to defend. While Rangers certainly have a good defensive process and are at least prepared to take advantage of the big danger opportunities up front, the skilful guys are only concentrating on the north-south attack. North-South hockey is great for the basics, but when it comes to solving the Rangers’ offensive problems, they need to be a little more East-West in the offensive zone and in the rush.

To me, one of the Rangers’ offensive problems is the lack of successful slot line passes. That weapon appears to have completely disappeared from their arsenal. To be clear, this doesn’t mean they aren’t trying these passes, it means they haven’t been successful in their attempts, at least at 5v5.

There are many reasons why these slot line passes don’t work, and there’s no easy fix. Skill level, injuries, team construction, learning a new system, etc. But for me, I think Occam’s razor applies here. The simplest answer is that the Rangers don’t stretch the defense by cutting to the net. The Rangers’ offensive problems come when they are predictable by not executing basic fundamentals in the offensive zone. Too many times we’ve seen them sit there and not move to open ice, cutting to the net to create more open ice to attack, deferring to point shots and hoping for a deflection that won’t come with Chris Kreider gone.

Rangers’ offensive woes also play a role on the power play

The Rangers’ offensive problems can also be seen on the power play, where they still have excellent raw numbers and a low shooting percentage. The Rangers are even more predictable on the power play, and there’s only so much they can do by trying to mirror what worked two years ago that clearly isn’t working now. Feeding Mika Zibanejad doesn’t work anymore, and this has little to do with Zibanejad himself.

Again, predictability kills offense. The Rangers’ offensive problems are almost entirely rooted in predictability, which affects shooting percentage. Almost no shots come from the right circle where Artemi Panarin normally stands, but where Alexis Lafreniere currently stands due to Vincent Trocheck’s injury. If there is no threat of shooting, the shot does not have to be respected. Lafreniere doesn’t even have to be successful with his shots, he just has to shoot. Make sure they respect the shot, and that opens up the closing line pass to Zibanejad.

The Rangers’ offensive problems can easily be explained away as shooting percentage issues. But something drives shooting percentage above skill level and overall luck. For the Rangers, they are not creating enough like in the past, which is leading to such droughts. They need a little more creativity and a little less north-south in the offensive zone.

It’s about a balance, not a shift to 100% east-west or 100% north-south. Balance promotes creativity, which helps create open ice by being less predictable. If teams have to respect all dump-in, slot line pass, drive to the net and shot attempt, the Rangers become much harder to defend. Hopefully that creativity returns, along with a spike in shooting percentage.