Although Napoli have made a good start in defending their Scudetto, there is a good chance that the Serie A crown will return to the city of Milan this season.
Coming out of the international break, both Inter and AC Milan are battling at the top of the table, having adapted quickly following changes in management.
Inter went to the top of the table in their first season under Cristian Chivu with 24 points from 11 games, ahead of only Roma on goal difference.
And their rivals Milan are just one point behind Sunday’s match at San Siro, with Massimiliano Allegri’s side embarking on a two-month unbeaten run.
Here we preview the game using Opta insights.
What is expected?
Inter – the designated ‘home team’ for this derby – are favorites for victory with the Opta supercomputer, coming out on top in 47.8% of pre-match simulations.
Milan are given a 26.2% chance of victory, with 26% of the predictions being drawn.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, Inter are favored for the title in 57.8% of simulations, with Milan given a 10.8% chance of claiming the crown. Roma (14.1%) are more favored than the Rossoneri, with Napoli on 10.1%.
But recent editions of the Derby della Madonnina have favored the team in red and black.
The teams met five times in total last season, twice in Serie A, twice in the Coppa Italia and once in the Supercopa Italiana.
Milan remained undefeated during those matches, winning three and drawing two, after having lost the previous six derbies.
The Rossoneri have not recorded a longer unbeaten run against their city rivals since enjoying a ten-match streak between November 2002 and April 2005.
Inter have effectively failed to win any of their eleven games in all competitions against Milan, Juventus or Napoli since beating the Rossoneri in April 2024 (five draws, six defeats).
Milan have also won their last two ‘away’ derbies against Inter in all competitions (2-1 in Serie A in September 2024 and 3-0 in the Coppa Italia in April 2024), the same number of victories as in their previous sixteen such matches (two wins, three draws, 11 defeats).
They were now able to win three consecutive away games against the Nerazzurri for the first time since the period between October 2003 and April 2005, including a 3–0 win by default when the second leg of their 2004–05 Champions League quarter-final was abandoned due to crowd problems.
Martinez chases Derby della Madonnina greats
Inter signed off the international break with a 2-0 win over Lazio, their fourth consecutive win in all competitions since losing 3-1 to Napoli at the end of October.
That ill-tempered defeat to the Partenopei – and former Inter coach Antonio Conte – is the Nerazzurri’s only defeat in their last 12 games in all competitions.
During that run, Inter have scored 28 goals (2.3 per game) and conceded just seven (0.6 per game), while they are also one of only two clubs – along with Roma – who have yet to draw in Europe’s top five competitions this season.
This season, Inter have scored at least eight more goals than any other team in Serie A (26, Bologna are second with 18), so Chivu may want to keep the handbrake off on Sunday.
Lautaro Martinez and Ange-Yoan Bonny were on the scoresheet against Lazio, with the Argentina international ultimately scoring ten Serie A goals before 2025, a somewhat disappointing figure for a player of his talents.
Nevertheless, he is only the fourth player in Inter history to reach double figures for goals in seven different calendar years in Serie A, after Alessandro Altobelli (seven), Benito Lorenzi and Giuseppe Meazza (both eight).
And Martinez may be on form at the right time, scoring in consecutive games in all competitions for the first time since October last year, when he scored in three games in a row.
Furthermore, the Derby della Madonnina brings out the best in Martinez, who has scored nine goals in 20 games against Milan in all competitions.
He could become just the seventh player for both teams to reach double figures in the Derby della Madonnina.
Andriy Shevchenko (14), Meazza (13), Gunnar Nordahl, Stefano Nyers (both 11), Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Enrico Candiani (both 10) have done this before, with only Meazza (12) and Nyers (11) scoring more for Inter in these matches.
Will the Rossoneri backline remain strong?
Allegri’s second spell in the Milan dugout got off to an inauspicious start in August, as his team started the season with a 2–1 defeat at home to Cremonese.
But they have steadily gone from strength to strength since that loss and remain unbeaten in their last 11 games in all competitions (seven wins, four draws).
This is their longest unbeaten run since finishing 13th without losing between April and September 2022, a run that saw them win the Scudetto under Stefano Pioli.
Allegri has repeatedly stated that their ambitions for 2025-2026 are to return to the Champions League, while other teams are better placed to challenge for the title.
But if the Rossoneri’s strong defensive record holds, there may be no limits to their ambitions.
Only Roma and Lazio (six apiece) have kept more clean sheets than Milan’s five in Serie A this season, although their total of nine goals conceded comes from 12.8 expected goals conceded (xGA).
Goalkeeper Mike Maignan has been partly responsible for Milan outperforming underlying figures, recording a 73.5% save rate and preventing 2.3 goals, according to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGoT) model.
Milan has already shown this season that it can compete with the best in Serie A, conceding just one goal in meetings with fellow top six Roma, Napoli, Bologna and Juventus.
They will need to show similar resistance when facing the best attack in Italy.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter-Lautaro Martínez
Martinez’s goal against Lazio before the international break was his 161st for Inter in all competitions.
That moved him into fourth place on the club’s all-time top scorers list, behind only Meazza (287), Alessandro Altobelli (209) and Roberto Boninsegna (171).
Martinez was also in good form for his national side last week, scoring Argentina’s opener in the 2-0 friendly win in Angola before assisting Lionel Messi for their second goal.
AC Milan-Rafael Leao
Leao could be the man to give Milan an attacking spark, especially if they can absorb the pressure and hit Inter on half-time.
The Portugal international was involved in seven goals for Milan against Inter in 20 games in all competitions (three goals and four assists), while he has only scored more against Lazio and Roma (eight apiece) in his Rossoneri career.
Leao could be involved in a goal for the first time in consecutive matches against Inter after providing the assist for Tijjani Reijnders’ goal in the teams’ most recent meeting, the second leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final on April 23.
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