Arsenal remain in control of the Premier League title race as we head out of the final international break of 2025, with a huge North London derby match awaiting them.
However, the Gunners may be starting to feel the pressure after dropping two valuable points in a thrilling 2-2 draw against Sunderland before the break, a result that allowed Manchester City to cut their lead at the top from six to four points.
They were also rocked by several fitness issues ahead of their return to action, with Gabriel Magalhaes possibly the biggest loss after picking up an injury while representing Brazil.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have endured a strange start to life under Thomas Frank, disappointing at home while excelling on their travels, and they sit fifth in the table.
Ahead of the first meeting between these two rivals this season, we dig into the Opta data to select the storylines and players to watch.
What is expected?
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal a strong favorite to win on Sunday, with a 69% chance of winning.
Spurs expectations are just 13.7%, with 17.3% of simulations having a final level.
According to the supercomputer’s season predictions for the 2025-2026 season, Arsenal’s title hopes dropped to 64.2% after the draw with Sunderland, but these are still significantly higher than second-placed Manchester City’s 22.4%.
Spurs, meanwhile, are only given a 9.8% chance of making the top four and guaranteeing Champions League qualification.
Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games against Tottenham (one draw), including the last three in a row. This is their longest winning run against Spurs since a five-game spell between January 1987 and January 1989.
Tottenham have lost seven of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (one win, one draw) and suffered as many defeats in that period as in their previous 25 North London derbies in the competition (nine wins, nine draws).
And they have had an even tougher time during their tour of north London, even though their away form has been good this campaign.
Tottenham have won just one of their last 32 away Premier League games against Arsenal, drawing 12 and losing 19. That only win came via a 3-2 scoreline in November 2010. Spurs were 2-0 down in that match, but goals from Gareth Bale, Rafael van der Vaart and Younes Kaboul completed a stunning turnaround.
Arsenal have also scored in each of their last 26 home Premier League games against Tottenham, scoring at least twice in each of the last eight.
It is their longest home scoring streak against any opponent in the league, while they have only recorded a longer run of two or more goals against Leicester City (nine games between 1997 and 2016).
Arsenal are struggling with injuries on both sides
Mikel Arteta may have hoped that the international break would allow Arsenal to recover some of their injured stars. Instead, the Gunners emerge from the two-week break arguably more bruised than they went into.
Arsenal already had doubts about Viktor Gyokeres, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli, while Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are long-term absentees.
And during the internationals they had to deal with several injuries in the strongest part of their team: their defense.
It is feared Gabriel will miss several weeks due to an adductor injury he suffered during Brazil’s 2-0 friendly win over Senegal in the Emirates, and any continued absence would be a major blow to the league leaders.
Since the start of the 2022/23 season, the Gunners have won 67.6% of their Premier League games when Gabriel started (75/111), compared to just 50% without him (7/14).
And as the only defender in double figures for goals in the Premier League at the time (11, nine via his head), Gabriel was also a key part of Arsenal’s set-piece ability.
Since his Premier League debut in September 2020, Gabriel has scored 18 goals, five more than any other defender in the competition in that time.
Excluding penalties, Arsenal have scored more goals from set pieces, both in total (10) and as a percentage of their goals (50%) than any other side in the Premier League this season. No team has conceded fewer goals than Spurs’ two, so Frank’s men could be particularly well-placed to take advantage of Gabriel’s absence.
Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber also suffered blows while representing Italy and the Netherlands respectively, but Arsenal’s concerns are not limited to their backline.
If they are without Gyokeres again, Mikel Merino may be asked to reprise the makeshift centre-forward role he played at the Stadium of Light.
Only Leandro Trossard and Martinelli, with nine goals each, have surpassed Merino among Arsenal players since the start of the 2024/25 Premier League season (eight goals).
Merino has played 33% of his Premier League minutes for Arsenal as a striker, compared to 62% in his natural central midfield position. The Spaniard has produced some big moments in front of goal, and the Gunners may need another one this weekend.
Spurs ready for more away success?
The only thing consistent about Spurs’ season so far is the fluctuation between their home and away results.
At the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, they have gone five games without a win in the league since beating Burnley on matchday one (two draws, three defeats).
Only bottom-of-the-table Wolves (one) have taken fewer points at home than Tottenham’s five this campaign.
But during their travels it was very different. Frank’s team has taken the most points (13), scored the most goals (12) and conceded the fewest goals (three) of all Premier League teams in away games this season.
The former Brentford boss, who is known for his pragmatic approach, must find ways to unlock deep-lying defenses at home but may be on the road if underdogs suit his team well this weekend.
At home, Spurs have averaged the fifth-highest possession in the Premier League this season (55.8%), while having the third-fewest fast breaks (two).
Their share of possession drops to the 10th highest in the league when only away matches are included (51.3%), while only five teams have surpassed their five fast breaks.
The likes of Richarlison, Randal Kolo Muani,
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Arsenal – Martin Zubimendi
With Arsenal’s defense likely to be weaker, it will be more onus on those ahead of them to add an extra layer of protection.
Zubimendi has completed 445 passes this season while under pressure from opponents in the Premier League.
Only England international Elliot Anderson has completed more, for Nottingham Forest (492). Maintaining control could be crucial for the Gunners if they are missing key players.
Tottenham-Mohammed Kudus
Spurs will be looking for a new derby hero on Sunday as this will be the first match between Arsenal and Tottenham not to feature Harry Kane or Son Heung-min since September 2014, when the teams drew 1-1 at the Emirates.
Together, Kane (14) and Son (eight) are responsible for 27% of Spurs’ Premier League goals against Arsenal (22/82).
Richarlison, who scored what he thought would be a late winner against Manchester United last time out, is perhaps the most likely to provide that spark as he is averaging more shots (2.71) and shots on target (1.0) per 90 minutes than any other Spurs player in the Premier League this season.
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