Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. “Specializing” is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical diamond with an approximately 3% chance of winning the prize Breeders’ Cup Grass Field. I would love to tell you how highly I thought of him and he was my wise choice, yada, yada, yada, but no. I don’t think I would have picked that horse, given the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I had boxed the entire field. Beware of the handicapper and bet builder who can’t admit he was wrong. I’m going to diagnose both my handicap, the pre-race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like trying to learn. The only sign was the tenseforms improving, but in that area, in his post draw, I still don’t see it. Anyway, I’ll stop grumbling.Grass racing is over this year. Yes, I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes it’s done. If you like grass racing, and older horses, this time of year is a slow and lean harvest, but the good people at The Thorophane asked me (they didn’t read my Breeders’ Cup debacle…shhh or they wouldn’t invite me again) handicap the River city at Churchill Downs, so that’s the mission.
It’s not a terrible field. This time of year you get older horses potentially getting one last run before retirement, or four YOs building on their improvements, with very few high-end class or graduated stakes wins, to show for it.
Conversely, I don’t think there is much video worth watching for this race. Interestingly enough, this field consists largely of early speed, and not much success in the distance field, with only five (5) 1 and 1/8 mile wins combined.
Before I go too far, I would die if I didn’t mention that Louisville is having a terrible week after the plane crash that left at noon.east 13 dead, of which 9 or more are missing. Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps and never lose sight of the fact that as humans we are all connected.
The the weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday. Keep an eye on the ground conditions as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6pm and there are two other races, unclassified stakes, on the card. Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feetit is the maximum position.
Let’s continue next:
Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in IN BOLD
Visualization of the Early and Late American Tenseform Tempo: Three real late speed, a few tactical albeit slow midrunners and a lot of very early speed.
I set Par for this race at 75 Early and 105 Late
Tomlinson number analysis with distance focus
November 8, 2025 CD; The river city handicap G3; 1 1/8 miles on grass
So, what to do with all that? If I’m honest, I think I’m experiencing disability burnout this year because I don’t have a strong opinion. Everyone can use a break every now and then, and after the Breeders’ Cup I usually take it off. It doesn’t help that I totally screwed myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders’ Cup Grass Field (can you tell I’m poignant?).
I’m going to appreciate the late speed of Chasing the crown/6: Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta. Has a win that’s half a furlong shorter, so I’m not holding the distance against him, but it’s a wildcard for him to overcome. Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combination, but I like it all together. My chalk.
I like it Taking sweets/12 more than others, and I have the 5 year old son of Spinning candy For Lael Stables as a winner candidate, I like his early tactical speed and decent late foot movement. In G2, place two back and a G3 gains four back.
I have a busy group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta candidates.
Corruption/8 is an improving 4-year-old who just built all of 2025 after entering the year as a girl. Acquitted himself well in the 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Peat cup at Kentucky Downs.
Lagynos/9 doesn’t win much, 3 wins in the last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame. Lifetime winner of $1.7MM won the $500,000 Carpet at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and back in place 9 days later in Grade 3. Out since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 attempts. Dettori is next, winless in 5 CD starts last year.
Epic ride/2 is a career winner of $1.9 million at age 4 and in 2024 Kentucky derby participant before heading to the turf in June 2025. 1 grass victory in 4 attempts and today the longest stretch beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky derby. Great early speed. Quality horse, without a doubt. More questions than answers for me.
Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, flashy stats Brad, (24% winner of Graded Stakes, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up) while another improving 4 year old made only his third start on grass. First time on CD, First time remotely on artificial grass, very stylish son of Nyquist for Godolphin. More questions than answers too.
Koopman/7 had a very good start to the season in 2025, winning 3 of the first 5 races before declining a bit. Oddly placed as a 60-1 shot at Keeneland in Turf mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs from Turf cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1 and followed by a G3 by 1/2 furlong shorter on CD. I’m not sure what to think of him.
If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (skip Trader) for $2, that’s a $60 bet. Too expensive and worthless risk/reward. This somewhat improves on dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24. That is my basic commitment.
If you play after the Breeders’ Cup, I tip my hat to you, a true horse player.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
#nomination #received #River #City #Handicap #Churchill #Downs