The Maple Leafs should not trade Brandon Carlo unless they get an offer they can’t refuse

Maybe this Leafs team doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt, but given the way they’ve looked over the last few games compared to the entire month of October, it’s fair to suggest that the pendulum on Carlo’s value will swing the other way once the team is fully healthy. Especially now that they have Troy Stecher, who has given the team some immediate relief in a time of dire circumstances, the Leafs defensive corps could look much better once Chris Tanev is healthy again and they have their full six-man unit back in place.

It may sound like a bit of an exaggeration, but the question of whether or not the Leafs should trade Carlo begs a deeper question: whether you believe the Leafs’ window is still open or not. If you’re one of the people who thinks the 2024-2025 Leafs were a figment of our imagination, buoyed by strong goaltending, and that things will only continue to decline in the coming years before Auston Matthews is due for a new contract, then it makes sense that you’ll want to trade Carlo and try to get some value back into the prospect pool.

Personally, I think it’s way too early to make such claims, no matter how terrible the team has looked at times. I think their early struggles were normal considering how things have gone in recent seasons, and the injury bug hit them at the worst possible time, extending the slump. I would be wrong to believe that once the team returns to full health, they will be back on track and back in the playoff conversation by the time the calendar year rolls around.

Having said this, my point remains that if a team comes knocking on the door and offers a first-round pick, a prospect and another piece for Carlo’s services, they would be foolish to turn it down. But Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving recently talked about wanting to pursue a “hockey trade,” in other words, a player for a player. So I wouldn’t expect the Leafs to seriously dangle Carlo unless they get a comparable player back (which, in that case, why make the trade at all?), or have them blow the doors off them with another offer.

The Leafs haven’t had an inspiring start to the season, and when January rolls around and this team is still four or six points out of a playoff spot, the time will come to have some tough conversations about selling pieces, in which case they should absolutely re-examine the talks with Carlo. But until then, they have a 29-year-old right-handed defenseman making $3.5 million who could be a legitimate asset for them and their playoff aspirations, and they shouldn’t be in a rush to trade him just for the sake of making a trade.

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