The Kon-quista: how Griffin reached the top spot among all prospects | Baseball prospectus

Translated by José M. Hernández Lagunes

The race for Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 prospects started much earlier than most this year. When we compiled the Midseason Top-50 for release in July, we knew that most of the top candidates would not graduate, so compiling the top of our midseason list would serve as a rehearsal for the 101, with most of the same candidates. But the conclusion we drew in July, which served as a (rebuttable) presumption for the winter, was that Kevin McGonigle was the best prospect in baseball and didn’t hold up in the cool weather.

With all due respect Samuel Basallo j Carson Bengeon our list of considered prospects, eight were tied for the top spot. This is how we went from those eight to just one: Connor Griffin.

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If your paradigm is that the hitter is most likely an above-average Major Leaguer, you could easily end up JJ Wetherholt as your main prospect. He has the longest track record as a candidate of this caliber; There’s probably no time between his 2023 sophomore season at West Virginia and now where he would have been outside the top 20 on an “open universe” list of undrafted players. Everything about Wetherholt’s game is good: he needs to hit for a good average, good power and play a good middle field.

But there is only so much bueno. Do you have a real tool to drive the ball to any outfield? It doesn’t have huge brute force or great directionality. He may be hitting for a healthy average, but his contact rate in the zone has been below average in Triple-A through 47 games, and it’s difficult to project an above-average hitting tool in light of that. Add to that his history of hamstring problems and we believe he lacks the potential of most players who came before him.

Trey Yesavage may have the simplest argument: the Blue Jays chose him to start Game 1 of the World Series and to pitch the eighth inning of Game 7, in both cases with plenty of solid veteran options available. So the team that won the American League pennant already considers him one of the best pitchers with an excellent pitching staff. Much of what we can say about him supports all this. His minor league performance in 2025 was exemplary – a 30.6% strikeout/walk rate across all four farm levels – and his splitter is one of the best individual pitches of any player.

But (there’s that word again) his pitch mix is ​​strange, and not always in a good way. His arm angle is maxed out, which weakens some of his incredible fastball carry. And his only current breaking ball, the slider, actually breaks on the arm side. Can he really be among the elite without a single pitch escaping right-handed hitters? Don’t know; What I do know is that if we want to make a pitching prospect the best prospect in the game, there better be no “I don’t know.”

Max ClarkTo be fair, he wasn’t involved in this discussion for much of the process due to the fact that he wasn’t selected in the end: it’s hard to give him more or less power. But the difference between him and McGonigle, which we thought was quite big at first, turned out to be quite small in the end. Clark hits the ball harder and makes more contact than you might think, while playing as a lethal center and controlling the zone, and has some results that are a bit like “what if PCA didn’t chase so much?”

I think Leo De Vries is being overlooked in these conversations because people can’t believe the Padres traded such a good prospect for a reliever. That led to a lot of criticism of his defense and especially his athleticism. But he played the entire 2025 season as an 18-year-old and posted a wRC+ of 125 across high-A and Double-A, with performance stats to match. Hit the ball hard and often and control the zone. Yes, he’s probably a second or third baseman, and no, he can’t match Griffin’s athleticism. But is it possible that the Padres traded him because AJ Preller changes everyone and not because they think he’s bad?

We considered this group of four and quickly eliminated it. That means there are four left.

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I argued this several times while compiling our list Nolan McLean He was the best prospect in baseball. I’m not sure I ever believed it. He’s a 24-year-old pitcher who spent much of the season on the verge of making it all in the high minors. But when you look at it in detail, he throws six different pitches with a real chance of being great, and there’s a pretty strong argument that he already has a top-notch curveball. The shapes and turning ability are absolutely incredible.

Ultimately, even I couldn’t support him enough for this to be anything more than an argument during our conference calls. It’s too old. The speed is not high enough. There may not be enough north-south movement in the profile. Could be a good number two. And like Yesavage, there can’t be any uncertainty that outweighs a pitcher with the best talent in the top tier of the OFP 70. But before I dismiss the idea entirely, answer me this: Would the Mets trade McLean for anyone else on this list right now? I don’t think they do that.

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That leaves three shortstops, all with perfectly viable options to become the best prospect in baseball, and all of them could have been.

Jesús Made had a similar season to De Vries: same age, he also reached Double-A, comparable production. He doesn’t have the experience of being traded or being an extremely unlikely shortstop. But compared to Griffin, he is slightly inferior. Griffin is more athletic and hits harder, which means we give Griffin more potential to be an MVP candidate and an exceptional player. Say you would choose Bobby Witt Jr. on Kettle Marte It’s not a criticism of Mars, it’s just the truth.

As I said at the beginning, we start from the rebuttable premise that Kevin McGonigle He was the best prospect in baseball. But that premise simply didn’t hold up. Yes, McGonigle’s hitting tool is still safer than Griffin’s (he makes more contact and makes better swing decisions) and McGonigle hits the ball at the top of his exit velocity range quite often. But that EV range doesn’t belong to Griffin, and defensively McGonigle is performing like a decent second baseman, while Griffin seems to be sticking to shortstops with arguably spectacular defense in center field.

And in the end, Griffin is the one. He answered virtually every question in a season in which he hit .333/.415/.527 between low-A, high-A and Double-A, turning 19 midway through the season. Would I make enough contact? A contact rate of 76% is not excellentbut he is above average, and if this player has a hitting instrument of 55, he could very well be the best player in baseball. Would you bring your power to the parties? An exit speed of 170 km/h, the 90th percentile, is really great for anyone, but especially for his age. As the season progressed, he went from hitting ground balls to popping out fairly consistently. Where would he end up defensively? Now it looks like this is a short stop.

Griffin simply checks all the boxes. He could be a superstar and he probably will be. And that’s why it went from 86th last year to 1st this year.