Let’s just say it out loud:
Justin Jefferson is being drafted like it’s still 2022.
But it’s not 2022 anymore. And the numbers don’t care about reputation.
I’m not saying Jefferson is bad. I’m not saying he suddenly forgot how to run routes. I am say fantasy managers are paying for a version of Jefferson that no longer exists — and might not come back, despite where he ends up NFL fantasy rankings.
This isn’t my Packers bias coming into play – although I do enjoy watching him fail. What this actually is is a classic case of name value exceeding production.
We are three years from Peak Jefferson
Everyone remembers the 2022 monster season:
- 184 targets
- 1,809 meters
- 21.5 fantasy points per game
- In short WR1
That year he was untouchable. It confirmed him as the elite wide receiver. But here’s the problem: every season since has gone downhill – and not just a little.
Goals per game:
- 2022: 10.8
- 2023: 10.0 (10 games, injury year)
- 2024: 9.1
- 2025: 8.3
That’s not random. That is a steady decline (23%) in alpha use. Fantasy dominance starts with volume. Jefferson is quietly losing it.
The Yardage Cliff is real
Jefferson’s yards per play:
- 2022: 106
- 2023:107
- 2024:90
- 2025: 62
Read that again. Sixty-two yards per game in 2025. Granted, the QB situation was a mess, but elite WRs rise above that. That’s not elite WR1 production. That’s middle WR2 territory. And this isn’t just volume; its efficiency also dropped. Yards per target dropped from about 10 in his prime to about 7.4 last season. His yards per catch dropped and his catch rate fell below 60%. That’s a complete profile change, not just bad luck.
Fantasy points don’t lie
Fantasy points per game:
- 2022: 21.5
- 2023: 20.4
- 2024: 18.6
- 2025: 11.9
That’s a nice step down. He went from league winner to solid WR1 to “great starter.” In 2025 he finished around WR20.
WR20.
Yet he is still drafted as a top-5 lock. That’s insane.
This isn’t a talent argument, it’s a role argument
Let me be clear: Jefferson is still an excellent receiver in real life. Every time he plays against the Packers he scares the hell out of me. But imagination doesn’t care about route trees or highlight catches.
Fantasy cares about:
- Objectives
- Recruiting
- Touchdowns
- Weekly separation
And Jefferson no longer dominates any of these categories. He has become a volume-dependent receiver in an offense where everything no longer flows through him. That puts him in the same bucket as guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb – very good, even great players, but not generational fantasy cheats. Only Jefferson is still priced as one.
The market pays for the past
This is the most important point. You are setting up:
- Declining goals
- Declining efficiency
- Vanishing touchdowns
- WR2 level fantasy output
…while paying the highest WR1 overall prices. That is not positive. That’s a trademark tax. Fantasy championships are won by identifying when stars Stop be special. Jefferson has already crossed that line.
In short
Justin Jefferson used to be a fantasy unicorn. Now he is just a very good receiver with a well-known name.
He doesn’t break up every week.
He has no command over the elite volume.
He doesn’t score.
That’s not elite.
If you draft him in the first two rounds, you’re betting on a rebound that the underlying trends don’t support. Not to mention, there’s no upside to his value if you draft him there. If he does end up producing, you’ve gotten the expected value of drafting him versus drafting a similar WR who actually has some upside.
Smart managers don’t set reminders. They map out routes. And Jefferson’s is pointing down.
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