Bitcoin, and the entire crypto market in general, could not sustain the upward momentum of ‘Uptober’. This is especially evident in the price of BTC, which has fallen to levels not seen in months and bear market voices are growing stronger. Bitcoin’s price started above $117,000 in October, and at the time of writing, the price of one coin is around $106,940.
On one of the betting markets of the popular prediction platform Polymarket, 38% of gamblers are betting that the Bitcoin price will fall below $100,000 in October. Moreover, there are 16% of gamblers who believe that the sub-$95,000 level is not out of the question. Traders are increasingly convinced (at least on this platform certainly) that Bitcoin will fall.
Polymarket recently shared an X-post about this, highlighting the ever-increasing bear market sentiment. On the betting market where you can bet that what level will the BTC price reach in 202540% of gamblers bet that the price of a coin will be above $130,000 by the end of the year, and 41% of them bet that the coin will be below $90,000. And the number of the latter gamblers is increasing.
What can you expect in the coming weeks?
The sudden change in market sentiment followed a period of stable confidence at the start of the month. Bitcoin failed to maintain its upward momentum in the second week of October, when the market suddenly turned downward after a major dip on October 10. Despite a strong start to October and reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $126,198 on October 6, the largest cryptocurrency continues to face deeper corrections, down 9% for the month. Despite the unfavorable exchange rate, institutional investors such as Michael Saylor Strategy did not give up their aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy. The company continues to purchase weekly, but has significantly reduced the volume of its purchases due to the falling exchange rate. Despite the flexibility of the settings, analysts believe that if Bitcoin’s price falls below $100,000, it could trigger further liquidations, putting even more selling pressure on the already fragile market.
The current BTC price is significantly below all short-term moving averages, which is technically a strong sell signal. Based on current technical indicators, the Bitcoin exchange rate trend is mixed, but overall it shows a rather weakening picture. The RSI value of 36 indicates that the price is approaching the oversold range but has not yet reached it, leaving the market in a neutral mood. The stochastic oscillator, on the other hand, is at an extremely low value of 11, which indicates strong oversoldness and suggests a potential buying opportunity. Similarly, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) value of −125 indicates that the exchange rate has deviated significantly downwards from its average level, which can also be interpreted as a buy signal. On the other hand, the momentum indicator value of −16.416 and the MACD level of −1.889 clearly show negative momentum, which is likely to continue the bearish trend.
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