The fastest Bitcoin (BTC) crash is over, but the worst is yet to come

Final floor forecasts have been revised down to $35,000-$45,000 as global liquidity conditions deteriorate.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $65,000 on Monday following US President Donald Trump’s proposal to raise global tariffs to 15%.

In addition to the uncertainty caused by rates, data indicates that the asset is currently in a phase of maximum psychological damage for traders.

BTC is entering the phase of ‘psychological torture’

According to Doctor Profit’s analysis, the asset is now in phase 4 of the cycle, following a range driven by liquidity dynamics, leverage positioning and recurring patterns in investor psychology. The analyst declared that Phase 1 occurred during Bitcoin’s rally between $115,000 and $125,000, a period that witnessed euphoric sentiment, extreme buying appetite, aggressive leverage, and the widespread belief that downside risk had disappeared.

This phase typically ends with sideways consolidation at high levels or short upside peaks and masks the market’s underlying vulnerability. Phase 2 began when Bitcoin fell below the psychologically critical $100,000 level, causing stress for short-term investors and leveraged traders. The move was described as quick and deliberate, designed to limit reaction time. The sharp crash of October 10 was cited as a defining example that led to the largest liquidation event in crypto history within hours.

Phase 3 followed as the fastest and toughest phase, confirming the bear market with an extreme 38% decline from all-time highs. Doctor Profit described this phase as the most brutal phase, during which panic and depression occurred as investors were unable to hedge or reduce their risks in time.

During this period, BTC lost 50% of its market capitalization due to rapid ‘mechanical repricing’. The analyst now places the market in phase 4, a long sideways period characterized by low volatility but high psychological stress. This phase is described as exhausting rather than violent, and the price is expected to move within a certain range in which market makers on both sides can generate liquidity while gradually exhausting participants.

Doctor Profit characterized Phase 4 as a selling zone for weak hands, where frustration, regret and fear dominate, and where most short-term capitulation occurs as retail investors exit at a loss after missing previous selling opportunities. He further explained that a breakdown into Phase 5, the full capitulation phase, is likely to occur within a few months rather than immediately, while near-term rebounds remain possible in the $57,000-$60,000 range.

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Capitulation before recovery

Stage 5 is projected as the most emotional stage and is often associated with systemic stress or black swan events. Revised downside targets are now between $35,000 and $45,000, amid broader macro and liquidity concerns.

The final phase 6 would see stabilization and structural reversal as selling pressure subsides and big players pile in while retail investors anticipate even lower prices. Doctor Profit concluded that while the fastest downside may be over, the most damaging psychological phase has begun, which is consistent with patterns observed in previous Bitcoin cycles.