The double-digit spike after the halving of Bitcoin (BTC) is not yet overbought

536 days after the halving, Bitcoin’s $126,000 rally is only just heating up, and analysts say the real breakout may be next.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high of $126,100 on Monday. However, profit-taking overpowered the market and crypto assets retreated 4%. by Friday. Then came the Trump-induced scare, and BTC plummeted to $101,000 on some exchanges before recovering to $112,000 at the time of writing.

Nevertheless, new data suggests that the real bull market phase is still ahead.

Bitcoin’s Momentum in the ‘Warm Zone’

Market data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin has entered an important phase in its post-halving cycle, showing signs of measured strength rather than a speculative bubble. As of this week, over 530 days since the April 20, 2024 halving, Bitcoin is trading around $112,000, which is an 85% increase from its halving day price of around $63,800.

The data positions the market at 35% over the typical four-year cycle, a midpoint historically characterized by steady but controlled upward momentum.

CryptoQuant noted that the cryptocurrency remains comfortably below overheating levels. The Z-Score, a metric used to measure price deviation from historical averages, currently stands at 1.47. This puts Bitcoin within a ‘neutral momentum’ zone, well below the 2.5 threshold that previously indicated speculative excesses and impending corrections.

Additionally, the 30-day moving average is around $115,913, reflecting a steady increase rather than a parabolic increase.

Volatility indicators further support the narrative of a steady rise. Binance data shows that Bitcoin’s 30-day standard deviation is around $4,540, indicating low volatility and potential price compression. Interestingly, these conditions often precede major price moves if they are supported by renewed liquidity inflows.

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Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks have occurred between 500 and 600 days after each halving, a period in which major cycle tops occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021. As the current cycle approaches this range, traders are closely watching for signs of acceleration or deviation from previous patterns.

While long-term holders and institutions continue to consolidate their positions, the market remains in a phase of balanced optimism. The coming months will test whether Bitcoin repeats its familiar boom-and-peak trajectory or evolves into a more stable, less volatile growth phase.

No euphoria yet

Bitcoin Vector’s analysis too echoed a similar sentiment. While long-term holders moving coins to exchanges suggests some selling, resulting in a slight pullback, activity is moderate and sustained rather than excessive. The market shows no signs of euphoria.

If this transfer spike subsides while on-chain fundamentals remain strong, it would reaffirm confidence in Bitcoin’s uptrend and support continued momentum in the fourth quarter.