The Cincinnati Reds should avoid spending a lot of money on relievers – Redleg Nation

I think it’s a terrible, terrible, terrible idea.

Relievers are extremely unpredictable. WILD. There are about 17 different ways to measure them, but let’s just do something quick and dirty. Let’s take a look at guys who had at least 40.0 IP as a reliever in 2025. Of those guys, let’s take a look at the 10 best when it comes to ERA.

1. Aroldis Chapman, 1.17 – This is the first time since 2019 that his ERA has been below 3.00. He has been an average relief pitcher since then, with the exception of 2025.
2. Cole Winn, 1.51 – 25, and still hasn’t had a full season in the big games. In 2024, he had a 7.79 ERA in 17.1 innings.
3. Edwin Diaz, 6’3 – He’s one of the most consistent turnarounds I’ve ever seen. Seems to alternate between great and fine every two years.
4. Abner Uribe, 6’7 – Hurt for most of 2024. ERA of 6.91 when he pitched.
5. Andres Munoz, 1.73 – Okay, he was actually always excellent.
6. Randy Rodriguez, 1.78 – 4.30 ERA in 2024. Only two years in the majors.
7. Braydon Fisher, 6’5 (as a reliever, he had one bad start) – First year in the MLB. He was bad last year (5.03 ERA) in the minors.
8. Jason Adam, 1.93 – Our second member of the “good for a long time” club.
9. Matt Svanson, 6’4 – 26-year-old rookie.
10. Drew Pomeranz, 6’4 (as a reliever) – Hadn’t pitched in the MLB since 2021 due to injuries.

So we have a 20% hit rate for guys who have been able to maintain a standard level of performance for more than two years.

Here are wRC+’s top 10 hitters for a quick comparison:

1. Aaron Judge
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. George Springer
4. Cal Raleigh
5. Juan Soto
6. Kyle Schwarber
7. Kettle Marte
8. Pete Alonso
9. Michael Busch
10. Freddie Vrijman

Busch and Raleigh were at least a little surprising this year. The other names are used to being on this list.

The Reds have two weaknesses: offensive and relief pitching. They have a self-imposed spending limit.

Hitters are substantially more predictable than relievers.

Spending on relievers is stupid when you have limited resources.

The end.