While it appears that some agreement has been reached to calm Donald Trump’s obsession with taking over Greenland, details are still being revealed. Thus the possibility that the emerging trade war over the issue, which was already flaring before the announcement of a deal, could flare up again.
If so, leaders in European capitals have been looking at what levers are available to try to dissuade the US president from moving toward more aggressive action. Some of the top US exports are its tech apps, services and platforms, putting them first in the line of fire. American social media platforms, for example, are responsible for this over a third of the entire value of the S&P – meaning any impact on it could be detrimental to the broader US economy.
Within Brussels, the center of European legislative decision-making, there has been discussion about how to bring some of the US’s more outlandish ideas into line with the global order, says Zach Meyers, research director at the Center on Regulation in Europe, noting: “Because they mainly provide services rather than physical products, reciprocal tariffs wouldn’t work.”
The European Union could use some has been described as his “big bazooka”: the so-called Anti-Coercion Instrument. That’s “specifically designed to deter and address this kind of geopolitical bullying,” Meyers says, and includes “a huge menu of other restrictions on the way Big Tech [companies] operating in Europe, such as restrictions on the exploitation of IP rights, on being able to compete in government contracts and limiting incoming investments.”
However, European leaders have postponed deploying the bazooka in this current skirmish, fearing that it could raise the geopolitical temperature and provoke an equally (or more) damaging response from Trump.
But the inability to use one method, and the shyness about using another, doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to bring Trump back to reality.
Unlike the brash, geopolitically shifting Truth Social posts that are turning the world on its axis, any European response would likely be far more subtle, but no less important, experts argue.
“There will be no door slamming, because banning major US platforms would anger many European consumers, disrupt businesses and undermine Europe’s own digital economy,” said Francesca Musiani, senior researcher at the French National Center for Scientific Research – not to mention what it would do to the US president’s blood pressure. “Subtler strategies give Europe some room to keep the market open, but make success within it increasingly difficult.”
Musiani adds: “If a trade war between Europe and the United States were to enter the technology sector, it would likely unfold more like a slow, grinding campaign: legal, brutally procedural and very expensive for American companies.” Such a war would likely be waged through the European Union’s comprehensive, technology-focused laws, including the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act; both were adopted in 2022 but were recently implemented.
Europe is also considering a handful of other legislative packages, including: a Digital Networks Actwhich would apply to telecommunications providers, and an amended Cybersecurity Act presented this week.
The continent’s tendency to crack down on technology has already sparked outrage from Trump allies, who call it “foreign censorship.” But implementation and enforcement could be significantly stepped up if European lawmakers deem it necessary. “Nothing would be construed as retaliation, rather as ‘consumer protection’ or ‘competition’, but the objectives would be clear,” says Musiani.
Long before Trump ramped up his rhetoric about taking over Greenland, Europe had considered imposing taxes on technology companies operating in Europe. That would likely be the next lever, Musiani believes, including “taxes on digital services that could be extended or harmonized in more member states, hitting online advertising, cloud services and marketplaces.”
These are all short-term measures intended as a stopgap measure while achieving the larger, longer-term goal: decoupling the European technology stack of excessive dependence on US entities.
“In the long term, the massive loss of transatlantic confidence caused by Trump’s threats will almost certainly underpin growing pressure on Europe to act more assertively to boost its own technology sector,” Meyers said. That could take the form of “buy European” rules, but is already taking shape in the movement to that end developing a European tech stack that does not require paying money to, or facing the threat of being held hostage by, US hardware suppliers.
For Trump, whose focus is usually on his own personal short-term and immediate gains, that longer-term impact may not be paramount. But it should be for the Americans he represents.
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