The best fits for Tatsuya Imai

Decision time is approaching for the Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. If he wants to make the move to the United States this year, he must sign a contract with an MLB team on Friday at 4:00 PM Central. There’s no indication he’s considering staying with the Seibu Lions, meaning a deal is imminent. While there is just over 48 hours to make the deal official, Imai must agree to terms with enough margin to complete a standard physical.

The 27-year-old (28 in May) is conducting in-person meetings with interested teams in Los Angeles this week. The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He is coming off a 1.92 ERA with 178 strikeouts over 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best strikeout rate of 27% as of early 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throw has improved as he has gained more experience Last season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.

Whichever team signs Imai will owe a release fee to the Lions. That is proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25 million, 17.5% of the next $25 million and 15% of all further expenditure. Imai is not expected to come close to the $325 million deal Yoshinobu Yamamoto was in command two seasons ago. He’s a few years older and just not that good. Still, it’s widely believed he’ll get a nine-figure guarantee, perhaps as much as $150 million, from a team that thinks he’s a mid-rotation arm.

Which clubs are best positioned to make that investment? Salary forecasts come from RosterResource.