Carlson is the second veteran outfielder to sign a minor league deal with the Cubs in the past week. Former Astros outfielder Chas McCormick also received an NRI from Chicago and will be in the mix for a bench spot.
The 27-year-old Carlson was the No. 33 overall pick in the 2016 draft by the Cubs’ archrivals in St. Louis. He was ranked as one of the top 10 players in the sport before his big league debut and had a nice showing in his first full season in 2021 (.266/.343/.437, 18 home runs), but has seen his bat fade since then. Carlson was a league-average hitter in 2022, but has compiled just a .210/.294/.314 batting line in 761 games between the Cardinals, Rays and Orioles in three consecutive big-league seasons. Along the way he dealt with shoulder, ankle, hamstring, thumb and wrist injuries. The ankle injury, suffered in 2023, required season-ending surgery.
Carlson, a switch-hitter, had an unusually poor showing against left-handed pitching last year, but that was a small sample against Baltimore. He has been good against lefties his entire career, hitting them at a .274/.347/.410 clip in 566 plate appearances. His left-handed swing and approach weren’t nearly as refined; in 1421 innings at the plate versus right-handed pitching, he is a .217/.298/.356 hitter.
The versatile Carlson can handle any of the three outfield spots, although his defensive qualities in center field have dipped in numbers in recent seasons. Statcast rated his sprint speed comfortably above average earlier in his career, but Carlson was closer to average in 2025 and in the 56th percentile of the league in that regard. He typically shows better arm strength based on the velocity of his throws from the outfield, but was also closer to average in that regard this past season.
Carlson may not have developed into the star the Cardinals hoped for, or even a regular, but if he can get back on track against left-handed pitching and play solid defense in the three outfield spots, he’s a fine fourth outfielder. Chicago’s outfield is ready Ian Happ, Pete Crow Armstrong And Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but Crow-Armstrong hit just .188/.217/.376 against lefties last season.
If the Cubs want to give Crow-Armstrong some breaks against tough lefties or even move to a more platoon system, Carlson’s skill set could lend itself well to a complementary role, though the same could be said for fellow NRI McCormick. Claim for remission Justin Dean and prospect Kevin Alcantara are both also on the 40-man roster. Both hit from the right side of the plate and can handle all three outfield spots.
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