The best fits for Alex Bregman

Every offseason at MLBTR we look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We have already looked at Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Framber Valdez. Let’s go to the third baseman Alex Bregmanwho opted out of the remaining two years and $80 million on his Red Sox contract earlier in the offseason. Bregman was not eligible for a qualifying offer because he had already received one earlier in his career, so he can be signed without losing draft.

Bregman was also a free agent last winter, but when the market didn’t produce a deal worth more than $200 million to his liking, he signed a three-year, $120 million (with a lot of deferred money) deal in Boston. That contract allowed him to opt out after each season.

At the start of 2025, Bregman was playing like an MVP candidate. Through May 23, he was hitting .299/.385/.553 with 11 home runs, 17 doubles, an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He suffered a quad injury that sidelined him for almost two months, derailing one of the most exciting starts of his career.

There is a story that Bregman struggled after returning from injury. That’s not entirely true. For the first 130 at bats after the injury, Bregman picked up where he left off. He hit .325/.408/.518 with more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (8.5%). His bat stalled over the next three weeks (.151/.223/.215, 103 plate appearances), and Bregman went on to finish the season hitting .276/.417/.414 in his last 36 trips to the batter’s box. The concept of his post-injury “swoon” is largely a misnomer. Bregman was healthy for the last eleven weeks of the season and actually only struggled for three weeks; the scale of those problems was nothing short of alarming. Not surprisingly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said after the season that Bregman probably came back a little early and wasn’t playing at 100%.

Overall, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with a revitalized walk rate and improved batted-ball stats. His defense performed better than average, even with ailing quadriceps. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference project him at 3.5 WAR in just 114 games. There’s a pretty simple case that Bregman is an affordable four-to-five-WAR player, and while talk of veteran presence/clubhouse leadership/intangibles is often overstated, it seems real that front offices are fascinated by his leadership skills and personality.

Bregman could be in higher demand than last winter. He’s now a year older, but he doesn’t have a QO attached to him and his plate discipline/approach rebounded after an uncharacteristic 6.9% walk rate and .315 OBP in 2024. Let’s take a look at Bregman’s most likely landing spots, based on roster makeup and salary prospects, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him on board.

Known/likely suitors (arranged alphabetically)

Cubs: Pitching is the Cubs’ main focus this winter, even beyond Shota Imanaga accepted his qualifying offer and will now return for the 2026 season. However, the Cubs already favored Bregman last season and have already been linked to him again. The fit is clear. Top prospect Matt Shaw didn’t make himself an everyday option at the hot corner when he handed over the reins at the position in 2025. Still just 24 years old, Shaw had an encouraging month after the All-Star break … before collapsing again in his last 133 plate appearances (.220/.293/.373). Shaw hit .226/.295/.394 overall. He is still a promising young player, but promising young players don’t always become solid players in the big league.