The Houston Texans travel to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Monday, January 12, with kickoff at 8:15 PM on ESPN.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline, and total using PFF’s market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks using steady efficiency metrics, and highlight the team-level advantages that could impact this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level numbers that matter most on Sunday, with all data backed by PFF Premium Stats and betting odds.
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Team stats
| Texans | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: General | 4th | 14th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 1st | 15th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 20th | 16th |
| Played SOS | 18th | 19th |
| Avg. offensive snaps | 69.1 | 61.5 |
| % Run plays | 39.9% | 38.6% |
| % Pass plays | 60.1% | 61.4% |
| EPA per run | -0.16 | -0.02 |
| EPA per pass | 0.06 | 0.01 |
QB comparison
| Texans | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | C. Stroud | A. Rodgers |
| PFF class | 72.9 | 68.7 |
| Passer-by assessment Clean | 106.4 | 101.7 |
| Passer-by assessment under pressure | 65.3 | 69.3 |
| Big Throw% | 2.93% | 4.20% |
| Revenue worthy game % | 2.54% | 2.45% |
| Assets | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Power class | 11th | 16th |
Key Injuries: Texans
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Figure | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Jordan | HB | Leg | Q | 79.2 | 76th |
| J. Hansen | L.B | Torso | AND | 77.1 | 82nd |
| K. Lassiter | CB | Leg | Q | 75.9 | 9th |
| T. Settelen | BY | Leg | AND | 71.3 | 32nd |
| J. Smith | CB | Other | AND | 68.7 | 137th |
| T. Brown | T | Leg | Q | 68.6 | 49th |
| J. Reed | S | Arm | AND | 65.6 | 137th |
Key Injuries: Steelers
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Figure | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Ekuale | BY | Leg | AND | 73.3 | 89th |
| D.Washington | THE | Arm | AND | 70.9 | 15th |
| D Elliott | S | Leg | AND | 67.8 | 62nd |
| B Jones | T | Head | AND | 57.7 | 115th |
| C Anderson | T | Leg | AND | 56.1 | 96th |
| I. Loudermilk | BY | Leg | AND | 32.8 | 188th |
Betting Insights: Spread
| Spread | Texans | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -3.5 (-110) | 3.5 (-110) |
| PFF projection | -3.2 | +3.2 |
| Implied coverage probability | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Break even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -5.6% | 0.9% |
| $$$% | 46% | 54% |
| To stake% | 54% | 46% |
Betting Insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Texans | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -183 | +152 |
| PFF projection | -165 | +165 |
| Implied probability of winning | 62.2% | 37.7% |
| Break even | 64.6% | 39.7% |
| Value | -2.4% | -2.0% |
| $$$% | 72% | 28% |
| To stake% | 73% | 27% |
Betting Insights: Total
| Total | Below | About |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 39.5 (-110) | 39.5 (-110) |
| PFF projection | 40.1 | 40.1 |
| Implied coverage probability | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Break even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -6.2% | 1.5% |
| $$$% | 51% | 49% |
| To stake% | 36% | 64% |
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