The divisional round of the NFL playoffs continues Sunday afternoon with an AFC showdown between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. Houston went on the road and defeated Pittsburgh in the wild card round. New England, the AFC East champions, took care of the Chargers at home.
Let’s take a look at my Texans vs. Patriots predictions.
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Odds
Moneyline: Texans +145 / Patriots -175
Spread: Texans +3 (+100) / Patriots -3 (-120)
Total: More than 40.5 (-115) / Less than 40.5 (-105)
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Best Bet No. 1: Under 40.5 (-105)
To the surprise of certainly no one, both defenses were great in the first round. The Texans limited the Steelers to just six points; the Patriots reduced the Bolts to just a field goal. Houston forced two turnovers and had four sacks. New England forced one turnover, caused two turnovers on downs and recorded sacks. Dominant performances from the Texans defense are nothing new. In the regular season, they ranked No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring, No. 6 against the pass, No. 3 in interceptions and No. 6 in sacks.
The problem for the visitors, of course, is that their offense is a big question mark. Make no mistake about their 30 points on Monday – two of their touchdowns were scored by the defense. CJ Stroud and the rest of the offense (except Woody Marks) were awful – especially in the passing game. Now they are without WR1 Nico Collins due to a concussion. The Pats’ offense also struggled last weekend, putting up just 16 points. QB Drake Maye was great during the regular season, but this is only his second playoff game and the first was far from impressive. Now he has to go against the best defense in the entire NFL.
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Best Player Prop Bet: Woody Marks Over 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
Dating back to the regular season, Marks has gained at least 64 rushing yards in five of his last seven games. The two exceptions are easily explained. One was such a blowout by the Cardinals (40-20) that Marks had just seven carries; the other was the regular season finale against the Colts, which turned into a meaningless game when it became clear almost immediately that the Texans’ AFC South hopes were over. The bottom line is that Marks is always productive when his work volume is up. He was excellent against the Steelers in the first round, rushing 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans’ game plan for this matchup should be the same: dominate on defense and run the ball on offense. While the Patriots’ defense is stout, they gave up 101.7 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry during the regular season.
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