While only 29% of respondents plan to expand their operations by 2026, more than half believe access to affordable housing will increase, reflecting what TD Bank leaders describe as “cautious optimism” across the industry.
Andrew Warren, senior vice president and leader of the community development lending vertical at TD Bank, said the company has adapted its approach to keep projects viable in a challenging environment.
“I think we, along with our partners, have been quite responsive,” Warren said HousingWire. “I think we’ve adapted, and I think we’ve been innovative in a lot of the structures and rates that we’ve offered recently.
“We certainly know that projects are getting bigger, and I think we have responded to this larger size, including some of the commitments we’ve made, to meet the needs.”
Construction costs remain a dominant concern, with 55% of respondents citing them as a major obstacle, followed by 39% citing price increases from tariffs.
The survey results come from 238 participants at the recent Governor’s Conference on Housing and Economic Development in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
Sustainability and long-term investment
Despite the cost challenges, 62% of respondents expect affordable housing development activity to increase by 2026.
The strongest demand is expected for multifamily, senior and elderly housing, as well as workforce housing for essential and middle-income workers.
Warren said sustainability is becoming increasingly important in the way TD Bank evaluates projects and supports developers.
“We can help developers know which materials will last longer,” he said. “We certainly know what makes buildings more sustainable. I think this is a one-time deal for a lot of these projects in these communities, the level of investment that we’re making in the long-term homes that we’re building.
“So we focus on providing loans to make buildings more affordable or energy efficient. We are one of the leaders in investing in passive homes, which are buildings that heat and cool 80% more efficiently than a conventional building across the country.”
Navigate Section 8 uncertainty
Policy uncertainty is another important factor shaping the 2026 outlook.
Sixty percent of respondents said proposed changes to the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher Program would impact their development plans – and 84% of this group expect a negative impact.
Warren acknowledged that recent federal disruptions have slowed activity, but he said TD Bank remains committed to projects that serve the lowest-income households.
“I just want to emphasize that we are not just a lender, but also an investor, and we are making a long-term investment,” he said. “We have been partners in many of these projects for more than fifteen years. That goes further than any economic or political cycle.
“We focus on understanding any government risks and we continue to invest in projects with rental subsidies because we believe in them.”
Workforce housing, public-private partnerships
The survey shows that workforce and middle-income housing is an area of growing opportunity, especially as rising housing costs put pressure on households that earn too much to qualify for subsidies but not enough to afford market-rate rents.
“I see a lot of opportunity both in worker housing and in what’s called attainable housing,” Warren said. “That is housing for people with a middle income, which also allows them to keep their housing costs below 30% of the median income in that market.
“That focus is not just on rental properties, but also on owner-occupied properties. For-sale properties are incredibly important across the country and something I think is achievable for many people within that middle-income bracket.”
Long-term message to developers
As developers look ahead to 2026, Warren said TD Bank’s message is rooted in partnership, expertise and shared risk.
“We have a multi-billion dollar portfolio and we provide more than a billion dollars in new commitments every year to build and preserve affordable housing,” he said. “We can confidently guide our partners through any range of problems.
“We develop deep relationships with our partners. We certainly lend and invest, but when we invest, we are not just a lender. We are one of the largest and most active investors in our entire territory.”
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