Tata Steel Q1 Results Preview: Net profit will probably increase by 29% on lower input costs, better realization

Favorable steel prices in Europe are likely to help to limit the losses in the overseas activities of Tata Steel to support the expansion of EBITDA per ton to around $ 103 per ton this quarter

Tata Steel is expected to book an increase of 29 percent in the net profit of June quarter at £ 1,674 crore on the back of lower raw material and operational costs.

Leading analysts expect the company’s turnover to fall by 8 percent to £ 50,478 crore.

The company will probably report 20 percent growth in EBITDA on an annual basis under the leadership of better cost efficiency, operational leverage and supported by better steel prices, according to Systematix Research.

Favorable steel prices in Europe will probably help to limit the losses in the overseas activities of Tata Steel to support EBITDA per tonne extension to around $ 103 per ton this quarter, it said.

Despite a likely decrease in volumes as a result of the maintenance of the factory and the exporting of headwind, the operational performance is expected to improve considerably. Losing European activities is expected to be moderate due to cost optimization in the Netherlands. However, revenue growth is expected to remain lukewarm, with most brokers predicting a decrease of the year.

Nuvama attributed the 15 percent quarterly-on-quarter (QOQ) decrease in the sales volume (up to 4.75 mt) to planned closures of factory maintenance and muted export demand. Yes’ Income projections are based on a decrease in the volumes of Q4FY25. Kotak emphasized weak volume trends as a resistance to topline despite better realizations.

Nuvama Research expects EBITDA to increase by 7 percent to £ 7,179 Crore, while Kotak Equities Research and JM Financial Projects increase 10 percent and 12 percent by £ 7,361 crore and £ 7,168 crore respectively.

At the front of the margin, Securities expects the company to benefit from the rise in steel prices in India, while the fall of coal prices to support EBITDA. Kotak attributes the improvement in profitability to reduce the coal costs and a 4 percent QOQ improvement of Indian realizations. Nuvama expects higher EBITDA per ton, powered by better prices and lower input costs in India.

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Published on July 30, 2025