AI investments stimulate the economy more than consumer spending. For now.

Expenditure for AI infrastructure now contributes more to the American GDP growth than the entire consumer economy, according to new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The comparison, that was posted To Twitter (X) of Economist Heather Long on Monday, suggests that hype may not be the only thing that stimulates the high stock prices and ratings of AI companies such as Nvidia and OpenAi.

Here, “consumption” means consumer spending on goods and services for personal use, which traditionally contributes to around 70% of the American gross domestic product. “AI expenditure” means business investments in software and information processing equipment, including data center construction, chip purchases and computer infrastructure.

The figures show that AI spending 1.05% of the total economic growth in the first half of 2025 contributed, after only 0.02% and 0.03% from 2022 to 2024 – a growth matio of 4x to 5x.

The bad news (for the general economy) is that consumer expenditures have fallen dramatically, from the contribution of 2.6% of GDP growth to only 1.05% in mid -2025. The decline could result from the marking of consumer trust such as the Trump rates.

Heady Times for AI companies

This has all been good news for AI companies and their suppliers.

Michael Cembalest, chairman of the market and investment strategy at JPMorgan, writes in a Recent assignment That since the appearance of Chatgpt in November 2022 AI-related shares are good for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of profit growth and 90% of capital expenditures. OpenAi is now appreciated at $ 300 billion. Anthropic is appreciated at $ 183 billion.

The “AI expenditure” is mainly focused on the new data centers that are needed according to the AI ​​industry to provide the next generation of services to both companies and consumers. Now, says Cembalest, there is new editions for data center spending on the renovation of new office construction for the first time. But he also points out that new data centers come under increased regulatory test because of their excessive demands on the Power Grid.

On the other hand, the BEA figures suggest that the economy is increasingly dependent on one narrow segment, when a healthy economy would show broad business investments in different sectors. That can be fine if the investment of the AI ​​infrastructure lasts, and if consumer confidence restores.

But investors usually abhor long -term capital expenditures, especially if there is no sign of that infrastructure that leads to measurable business efficiency. And so far the efficiency of generative AI and new automation have been spotty.

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