It is a landmark decision that is narrowly at the top Juan Soto‘s record salary of $31 million (the highest ever for an Arb-eligible player) and has been absolutely shattered David Price‘s long-standing record for arbitration-eligible pitchers. Coincidentally, Price was also a Tiger when he set that record, though the two sides came to an agreement without the need for a hearing; he projected a salary of $19.75 million for the 2015 season – a record that stood for more than a decade.
Skubal’s case was the most fascinating arbitration case in history. He and agent Scott Boras took advantage of a clause in the CBA that allows players with more than five years of Major League service time to compare themselves, not to previous arbitration precedents, but to open-market free agent prices. We haven’t seen a player try to break the conventional arbitration system in this way, despite the presence of that clause, but Skubal’s back-to-back Cy Young Award wins in the American League encouraged his camp to shoot for the moon.
It should be emphasized that this clause concerns players entering their final season as club control. While for example Paul Skenes will most likely request a record salary next season for a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher, he won’t submit a $30 million+ figure. He would have no chance of winning. Instead, Skenes and his camp will likely aim to move the needle beyond the current record for a first-time pitcher: Dallas Keuchel‘s $7.25 million salary after his own AL Cy Young win in the 2015-16 offseason.
Likewise, while many onlookers are puzzled by the fact that the Tigers are offering a (relatively) low salary of $19 million for Skubal’s final season. There’s a feeling among fans that Detroit should have submitted a grade in the mid-20s, but that’s not how teams approach arbitration. Clubs generally fight tooth and nail to keep arb prices low – hence the hearings every winter over gaps of around $200,000 – because arbitration has historically been based entirely on past comparisons. It’s unrealistic to think that any team would have been willing to move the needle on a service class by around $5-6 million.
The Tigers’ $19 million submission for Skubal already marked an 87% increase. On a percentage basis, this is actually more than double the increase received; he had made $14 million in 2014 before getting a $5.75 million (41%) raise in 2015. For example, if Detroit had offered Skubal a salary of $25 million, that would have been a massive 146% increase over the previous year’s salary. In retrospect, it’s easy to say that maybe they should have, but that wasn’t the intention. way of working of any team in arbitration, at any time over the years.
Likewise, it wasn’t the MO for any player or union to attempt to leverage that heretofore obscure CBA clause in an attempt to completely upend the arbitration system as we know it. This meant a risk for Skubal and Boras; the two certainly could have taken a more conservative approach by requesting a $21-22 million salary aimed at incrementally further advancing the market for stars (particularly pitchers) in arbitration. Instead, they gambled on Skubal’s historic pair of seasons and were rewarded with a historic ruling. Skubal’s $32 million win will now be a fair shot to be cited as a potential star comp at any point in the future.
Looking to the more immediate future, the arbitrators’ ruling has major implications for Detroit payrolls. The Tigers agreed to a three-year contract worth $115 million Framber Valdez last night and will now pay Skubal $13 million more than they would have if the panel had ruled in their favor. Within 24 hours, their salary rose from a plausible $164 million or somewhere in the neighborhood of $215 million, depending on how Valdez’s contract ends on an annual basis and how much deferred money the contract contains — all of which is still unclear.
One would imagine that had the Tigers won yesterday’s hearing, there might have been some additional wiggle room on the payroll for further late additions to the roster. That may still be the case, but the extra $13 million coupled with the massive Valdez deal pushes Detroit into franchise-record payroll territory and could mean the heavy lifting is largely behind them.
Fans of other clubs will certainly hope that Skubal’s arbitration victory opens the door for a possible trade. It is very unlikely that this will be the case. Tigers brass declined to declare Skubal completely off-limits at any point this winter, but did so more out of principle than out of any actual willingness to move him. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has declined to speak in absolute terms about Skubal, yes, but has also done so regarding virtually all other roster matters when asked.
That ‘never say never’ mentality has led to many wishes from fans who would like to see Skubal in their club’s shirt, just as it has led to hopeful inquiries from rival teams across the league. So far, there is no indication that a Skubal transaction was ever seriously considered; Harris & Co. have seemingly given other clubs the opportunity to make a comical offer that they simply cannot refuse, but no team has done so.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this this morning that after adding Valdez, the Tigers had no intention of trading Skubal if he won his case. The addition of Valdez gives Detroit an arguably overqualified ‘No. 2’ starter to team with Skubal atop a rotation that now makes them the unequivocal favorites in a perennially weak American League Central. Valdez’s relatively short-term deal also ensures they have a quality starter for the 2027 season in case Skubal leaves as a free agent. If the Tigers are able to re-sign him on the open market, they’ll return that combination for at least the ’27 season, at which point Valdez could opt out — leaving the Tigers down to “just” one immense, top-tier salary for a member of their rotation.
There’s more to come.
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