What you need to know:
- Six newly created wallets reportedly made nearly $1 million by correctly betting that the US would attack Iran by February 28.
- The February 28 strike contract generated approximately $90 million in trading volume.
Last weekend, a group of traders on Polymarket benefited from the bombings in the US and Iran. Data in the chain shows that six newly created accounts made nearly $1 million betting that the United States would attack Iran by February 28. The bets were placed just hours before reports of the first explosion.
The trading activity attracted a lot of attention from many in the crypto space, especially from blockchain analytics company Bubblemaps, which identified unusual trading patterns associated with the accounts.
All wallets were made in February, and some purchases for as little as 11 cents were paid out at 100 cents when the contract was resolved. In prediction markets, this type of price movement can translate into profits of around 800% or more.
Social media users accused the traders of trading on leaked government information, with some claiming that someone close to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth may have tipped them off. One viral post claimed that an “incognito” wallet made $500,000 in profits in one day.
Also read: Two Israelis accused of using secret war intelligence to profit from polymarket betting
Increasing scrutiny of polymarket prediction markets
Over time, Polymarket has grown into one of the largest platforms for betting on geopolitical events. It allows users to trade contracts related to real-world outcomes, including wars, elections, and even changes in political leadership.
Before the Feb. 28 strike, contracts earned about $89. 652 million in trading volume, making it the most active date-based contract on the platform. A similar contract of this type, predicting strikes on Jan. 31, brought in about $42 million, while a Feb. 27 contract generated more than $25 million in trades.
Previous criminal charges against Polymarket insiders
Earlier in February, Israeli authorities filed the first criminal charges linking betting on the prediction market to classified military information. A military reservist and a civilian were indicted for using classified data to place bets on Israeli security operations, netting them about $150,000.
The latest Iran-related transactions add to the growing debate over whether prediction markets can remain largely unregulated while handling contracts related to war and national security.
Also read: Can Aster surpass $1.22? Traders are monitoring the critical resistance zone at $0.824
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