Super Bowl 60: Seahawks-Patriots betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

Every year, sportsbooks introduce an extensive menu of Super Bowl betting odds for bettors to get lost in – everything from “Who will be crowned Super Bowl MVP?” to “What color Gatorade is poured on the winning coach?” and just about everything in between.

While it can be fun — and largely harmless — to spend a few bucks on narrative props, like whether the Seahawks attempt a pass from inside the Patriots’ 1-yard linethis is your reminder to bet with your head – and the data – instead of donating money to your favorite sportsbook based on storylines alone.

And that’s exactly what we want to do here at PFF.

Game overview

It’s time. The final showdown of the 2025 NFL season is here: Super Bowl 60, live from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

The matchup features the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Seattle Seahawks (14-5 ATS), against the AFC’s No. 2 seed, the New England Patriots (14-6 ATS), in a rematch of the infamous Super Bowl 49 showdown.

More data and insights on this matchup

Both teams stand above the rest in terms of profitability this season, with each posting a coverage ratio of 70% or better. Yet they arrived at this point through very different paths.

For the Seahawks, the road to the NFC championship led straight through the NFL’s toughest division, the NFC West. The division reMaineI remained undecided until the final week of the regular season, when Seattle not only secured the division title but also claimed the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The job wasn’t done there, however, as the Seahawks’ postseason path included two division rivals who posted the second-best record in the conference. Ultimately, Seattle faced the 11th toughest schedule in the NFL this season.

The Patriots’ journey looked very different. During the regular season, New England faced only two teams — Pittsburgh And Buffalo (twice) – that ended with winning records, and it covered just one of those three matchups. As a result, the Patriots finished the year ranked 31st in the league’s schedule. But if their playoff run has taught us anything, it’s that a well-coached team like this can overcome much more than what its regular-season resume suggests.

That distinction matters because it provides important context for interpreting different efficiency measures when evaluating each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

As mentioned in my first look at the spread after the conference championship round, the Seahawks excelled in all three phases of the game despite playing a tough schedule. They became the first team since the 2016 Super Bowl champion New England Patriots to earn a PFF grade above 84.0 on offense (86.0), defense (84.5) and special teams (90.1).

New England isn’t far behind, entering this game with the fourth-highest PFF grade on the team (92.4). However, when taking into account the quality of competition they have faced, this proves to be the Patriots’ most challenging test yet.

This matchup features two of the NFL’s best defenses, with both teams ranking in the top three in EPA allowed per game. That reality is reflected in the betting market, with the game opening overall at 47 points and quickly moving to 45.5, where it currently stands.

Despite the downward movement, the lower total has captured public interest in recent times, with around 73% of bets coming in over 45.5. But even after the total dropped by more than a full point, the PFF simulation model remained still is trending downward, projecting a 54.8% coverage probability.

The key to this matchup may ultimately come down to which defense can better control the opponent’s run game.

For the Patriots to be successful, slowing Seattle’s rushing attack is crucial. The Seahawks’ offense flows from the run game, as evidenced by their league-leading run-play percentage (47.3%) and top-10 play-action usage (28.0%). Establishing the run allows Sam Darnold to comfortably operate outside the play, where he recorded the second-highest yards per attempt (10.97) and explosive success rate (26.2%) in the NFL.

That task could become significantly more difficult if linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle) is less than 100%. Spillane owns the ninth-highest PFF run defense grade among linebackers (85.8) and aggravated his injury in the conference championship game. The Patriots’ run-defense splits without Spillane on the field are stark, making his availability and effectiveness a crucial factor in this matchup.

Patriots execute defensive splits

On the other side of the ball, Seattle boasts the league’s best defense against designed runs, leading the NFL in EPA allowed per play while giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. That matchup could spell trouble for a New England rushing attack that ranks just 15th in PFF team rushing class.

If the Patriots struggle to generate consistent production on the court, the burden will fall squarely on Drake Maye to provide offense with both his arm and legs. With the ball likely in the young quarterback’s hands at a high volume, the PFF model identifies the value on the over for Maye’s passing attempts, currently set at 30.5.

That dynamic could also expose Maye to Seattle’s potent pass rush — a recurring problem for the young quarterback this postseason. He has been pressured on over 13% of his dropbacks and has been sacked 15 times, but the most alarming figure is his pressure-to-sack rate of 45.5%. That figure is nearly double that of any other quarterback this postseason.

While protection defects have played a role, many of these pockets are not solely due to poor blocking. Instead, they often arise from Maye holding the ball as play develops on the pitch. He has been charged with 22.4% of his sacks this season, the fifth highest rate among quarterbacks.

Seattle is well equipped to exploit that trend. The Seahawks apply pressure on 39.8% of dropbacks – seventh best in the NFL – without relying heavily on the blitz, which they deploy at a rate of just 25.9% (28th). That ability to win by four points denies opportunities for key members of Seattle’s front, including DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams.

Seahawks Pocket Props (DraftKings)

With Seattle’s ability to apply pressure, there is also an increased risk of Maye putting the ball on the ground. The Patriots quarterback has struggled with ball security this postseason after missing five sacks, bringing his season total to 10 fumbles.

DeMarcus Lawrence, who has recorded a strip sack in every playoff game this postseason, looms as a prime candidate to force another turnover. He is currently priced at +1100 to record a fumble, a number that reflects both odds and recent form.

With so much at stake for both franchises, this matchup has all the makings of a classic – and a fitting send-off to a monumental 2025 NFL season.