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Chicago Bears San Francisco 49ers (-3) [Total: 52.5]
Game overview
The No. 1 seed in the NFC could very well be determined by which franchise claims victory in this matchup.
The Bears already captured the team’s first NFC North crown since 2018 with a loss to the Packers on Saturday. It represents a huge leap forward from the team’s early season struggles, which saw their odds to win the division sit at +3200 after an 0-2 start to the year.
The work doesn’t stop with winning a division title, however, as the Bears are eyeing the conference’s top seed. That path starts with winning their final two games of the regular season (at 49ers, vs. Lions), and needing the Seahawks to falter down the stretch.
For San Francisco, the path to both the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed is the same: win. Along with this matchup, the 49ers will close out the regular season with a home game against the current No. 1 seed Seahawks. Toppling both would put the 49ers in the driver’s seat for first place in the division and conference, also sending the division-rival Rams and Seahawks on the road for Wild Card Weekend.
With a total of 52.5 points, oddsmakers expect no shortage of points in this match. It’s an understandable projection considering this matchup features two of the best offensive play-callers in the league: Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan.
However, with both George Kittle (ankle; questionable) and Rome Odunze (foot; out) absent from practice all week, both offenses could be without their best pass catchers. That can make it difficult to reach the over, with the PFF simulation model projecting a 58.8% probability of the under, which equates to an expected value of 6.5%.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: over 5.5 receptions (+118)
With George Kittle set to miss this game due to injury, the expectation would be that the 49ers’ passing game would flow through Christian McCaffrey. The talented back has racked up a team-high 51 receptions without Kittle on the field this season – more than double that of any other 49ers pass catcher. McCaffrey has seen a target on more than 27.2% of his routes, making him the only player to exceed 20%.
From a per-game standpoint, that volume level equates to McCaffrey recording an average of 7.5 receptions and eclipsing that mark in all six games that Kittle missed or played fewer than 50% of offensive snaps.
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