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Denver Broncos (-5.5) vs. Washington commanders [Total: 43.5]
Game overview
The Broncos and Commanders enter this primetime matchup well rested after Week 12. It’s good timing for both teams as they look to get healthier over time, with both returning key playmakers this week. Denver cornerback Pat Surtain II and Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin are both set to return from injury just in time for a high-profile showdown that could go a long way in deciding this game.
The Broncos, looking to extend their eight-game winning streak, come in as road favorites, a spot where they have struggled this season. Outside of Mile High Stadium, Denver has a 40% coverage percentage this season, including an 0-2 record against the spread as a favorite.
As far as the Commanders are concerned, losses are mounting. They are looking to snap a six-match skid – all defeats in which they failed to compensate. The story has been the same in the betting markets all season for this team, as they maintain a 3-8 record against the spread with their last home coverage coming in Week 3.
Washington is still missing quarterback Jayden Daniels, so the team’s chances of beating this game rest with Marcus Mariota, who has performed relatively well during his time as a starter this season, earning a top-10 PFF grade (78.6) at the position. That will be tested against a Broncos defense that allows the lowest success rate (32.1%) in the NFL on pass plays.
On the Broncos sideline, the steep road favorites will depend on whether Bo Nix and the offense can keep up the early production. The Commanders’ defense comes in well below the NFL average on most major defensive metrics, but it remains to be seen if Denver can take advantage. Consistency has been a shot in the arm for Sean Payton’s offense this season, as the group ranks in the bottom five in the percentage of plays that generate a positive EPA (41.0%).
Combine these two factors and the score may be more limited, lending credence to the PFF model’s slight underprojection for this matchup.
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders: Under 41.5 rushing yards (-113)
The Commanders’ backfield has shifted to Chris Rodriguez Jr. after his pair of strong performances. at the center of the ground game, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt hasn’t been pushed out of the picture. Since Rodriguez’s emergence in Week 9, the backfield split has remained even between the two backs, with each totaling a 43.4% share of the workload. While Rodriguez has been more productive, splitting the workload makes reaching production thresholds much more difficult.
The Broncos defense ranks in the top five in PFF run defense grade (75.7), so running lanes may be few and far between. The defense’s biggest asset against the run is its ability to limit explosive play, as it has allowed the fewest rushes of 10 or more yards (11) on designed carries in the NFL.
Schematically, the Commanders’ power running game may struggle to generate push against a Broncos defense that allows the third-lowest EPA per play mark against gap, power, counter and pull-lead concepts. That doesn’t bode well for Rodriguez, who has gotten 58.8% of his production from gap and counter runs this season.
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