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Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) [Total: 47.5]
Game overview
The Vikings and Cowboys are trying to avoid elimination in the NFC playoff race.
According to PFF playoff probability stats, Dallas has an 11% chance of securing a postseason berth, with a loss torpedoing virtually any chance of a realistic spot. With four games left on the schedule, it’s time for the Cowboys. That urgency — and the light schedule to close the season — bodes well for Dallas’ chances of staying alive and crossing its preseason overall win line (7.5).
The Vikings are not in such a fortunate position. While not yet mathematically eliminated (<1%), Minnesota could be by the time kickoff rolls around. To maintain their good reputation, the Vikings need plenty of results to come their way all Sunday.Apart from the motivation factor, the trends are not favorable as far as this match is concerned. Although the Vikings are coming off a dominant 31-0 shutout victory over the eliminated Commanders, that is only their second coverage since early October, which amounts to a coverage percentage of just 25%.For the Cowboys, after a disappointing loss to the Lions in Detroit, the shift back to Dallas is working out favorably. At AT&T Stadium, they have a 4-2 record against the spread, most recently beating the Eagles and Chiefs for outright wins as underdogs.
RB Malik Davis, Dallas Cowboys: Over 8.5 rushing yards (-105)
While Malik Davis hasn’t featured much in the Cowboys rushing attack, he has taken advantage of his limited options to showcase his strength and efficiency as a north-south runner. Since taking over the backup role from Javonte Williams in Week 8, the former undrafted back has generated 6.4 yards per carry, including 4.6 yards after first contact. That level of efficiency on limited touches has helped Davis produce 20 or more yards in three of his past four games.
Although this rushing line is low, it can be difficult for a back with limited ball share to exceed this target. But there is value here due to his ability to burst through gaps quickly, limiting his chances of losing, evidenced by his perfect stuff rate of 0.0% (negative distance).
The Vikings aren’t among the most sensitive defenses against the run this season, but their aggressive approach can leave them in tough situations. Over the past three games, they have allowed 3.5 yards after contact per attempt and 10 rushes of 10 or more yards, both of which rank in the bottom four.
Davis excels at attacking the throat of defenses, averaging 10.25 yards per attempt on runs into A gaps. Meanwhile, the Vikings are allowing the fifth-highest rushing success rate and over 4.1 yards per carry on A-gap runs.
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